Kazakhstan are the home name here, but the numbers from their three games under the new coach don't show a team that creates much. Faroe Islands are unbeaten, have drawn every game, and have kept producing chances against sides that have the ball more than they do. My view turns on which team is actually better at making shots, and the answer so far is Faroe.
The first meeting a week ago ended level, but it wasn't an even game. Kazakhstan had more of the ball, yet Faroe had far more shots, ten of them inside the box against three, and five on target against one. A dead-level scoreline hid a clear gap in chance quality.
Kazakhstan's home game against Moldova tells the same story from the other side. They had around two-thirds of the ball and nineteen shots and still lost. Moldova scored right before the break and again from a corner just after it. The coach has also changed the starting group in every game and used a different keeper, so there is no settled shape to lean on. Their attacking expected-goals figures across the last three games were low, with two of them well under half a goal.
Faroe's draw with Slovakia fits the same pattern. Slovakia held the ball for about two-thirds of the game, but Faroe matched them on shots and had more shots inside the box, then equalised from a corner. They are not a team that wins by controlling matches. They stay compact, take what set pieces give them, and sit in the game until late.
So the pick is on the side that has been out-chancing opponents without the possession numbers to show it. Kazakhstan have the home ground and the set-piece route, and I've read that path first, but I don't see enough in their recent games to make them the better team here.
