China are still treated as the clear home side here, but their last two home games tell a different story. They lost 0-3 to New Zealand and 0-5 to Palestine at the same ground within a week, and the goals came in every way you can think of. My view turns on a Tajikistan team that has been hard to beat by more than a goal, facing a back line that keeps getting opened up.
The Palestine game is the clearest picture. A failed clearance gave away the first goal, a ball in behind plus a keeper who didn't deal with it gave the second, and the third came after Palestine got through China's high press. China hit the post twice and had a one-on-one saved, so it wasn't a team with no attack. It was a team that couldn't stop the next move once it was beaten. Five changes at half-time didn't stop the bleeding either.
Against New Zealand it was the same theme with different details: a second phase after a corner, a quick combination through the middle, and a rebound header late. The post-match write-up didn't pin any of it on one player, which usually points to a unit that isn't settled. Several regulars were away with the Asian Games group or hurt, and the keeper and centre-backs were shuffled between those two games.
Tajikistan don't look like a side that will run China off the pitch, and I'm not pretending they are. What they do offer is shape. They drew with India, held Palestine goalless in one meeting, and then lost only by an own goal at Azerbaijan, a game where they were out-shot on target but never broken open. They also pushed hard late on in that game and forced the keeper into saves.
So my read is a tight game decided by a set piece or one transition, and I'd rather be on the side that has stayed close in its recent games than on the home name with the shaky defence.
