Luxembourg are the market's slight favourite here, but the hosts have not scored at home in four games and have just lost the players who were supposed to fix that. My read is that the home edge is thinner than the price suggests. Bulgaria are a mess too, which is why this is a game about who gets one goal, not who dominates.
Luxembourg won the first meeting 2-1 in Plovdiv, and it was a fair result on the numbers: 15 shots to 10 and expected goals almost level at 1.28 to 1.27. Since then they lost 0-3 at home to Iceland and 0-1 at Estonia, where the chances were 0.53 to 1.46 against them. Over their last ten they average 0.3 goals a game.
The squad news makes it harder. Barreiro was ruled suspended after UEFA reassigned a yellow card from the Estonia game, Mahmutovic is also suspended, and Korac, Sinani, Jans and Martins are out. That is a creator, a centre-back and several regulars gone in one go. Thill is still there, but the support around him is thin.
Bulgaria have their own problems: a new interim coach in Ribarski after Dimitrov resigned, two suspensions in Lukas Petkov and Velkovski, Marin Petkov leaving camp for personal reasons and Ivanov injured. They lost 0-3 in Iceland. Even so, they keep getting chances, 17 shots to 6 against Estonia and ten against Iceland, and the first meeting between these two was level on expected goals.
In the base data, the lower-priced side has failed to win 17 of its last 20 games, and Luxembourg's recent home results fit that. It is a sample, not a rule, but it fits what the squad news says about this particular side. I would rather be on the team that needs one goal than the team that has not found one at home all autumn.
