Two sides who struggle to separate themselves from each other. Internacional sit 18th and Corinthians 14th, both create and concede around one expected goal a game, and neither has found a way to win lately. I am backing the match to finish level at the Beira-Rio, because the scoring picture is thin on both ends.
Internacional have one win in their last ten and have been level four times in that run. Corinthians have also lost four of their last five. Neither team looks like it will pull clear of the other.
The history points the same way. Of the last 12 meetings, six ended level, four went to the home side and two to the visitors. The cup ties in August were decided by a single goal each, and the April league game was 1-0.
Internacional lose goalkeeper Rochet and three others, and Corinthians have three defenders doubtful, so neither back line is at full strength. Internacional hold just 41.8% of the ball and concede about 1.2 expected goals, which does not suggest an open game either.
The market has moved a little toward the visitors, with the home price drifting out since the weekend, while the level result has shortened. That fits a close match more than a runaway for either side.
