This is a rematch four days after France edged Belgium 1-0, and I expect it to be just as tight. Both sides are short of the players who create their chances: France are without Mbappe and the suspended Upamecano, Belgium without the suspended De Bruyne and Tielemans. In three Nations League games under Zidane, France have scored exactly one goal each time from roughly the same chance quality, so I don't see the game suddenly opening up.
The first meeting was a cagey game that Olise settled in the 88th minute, and Belgium managed only 0.69 xG in it. France's other two games in this cycle, a 1-0 against Turkey and a 1-1 with Italy, also produced a single French goal at about 1.2 xG each time. France have now won the last six meetings between the sides, and in the last five the total landed under the usual three-goal mark three times, over once, with one game exactly on it.
Belgium's two wins, 2-0 at Italy and 3-0 against Turkey, came with clean sheets, but they come into this one without their midfield engine, and France's likely line-up with Olise, Dembele and Doue behind a new centre-back pair looks more about control than a shootout. A second low-chance game between two sides who now know each other well is the most likely shape of this one.
