This one turns on a coaching change. Costa Rica sacked Fernando Batista and handed the team to Bryan Ruiz, who has run exactly one match so far. Haiti, meanwhile, have a settled plan under David Badía and already showed it against these same opponents a few days ago. I side with the team that knows what it is doing.
Haiti's recipe has been the same in both games I read about: a fast start and a tight defence behind it. Against Costa Rica in Kingston they scored in the ninth minute, added an own goal before the break and shut the game down 2-0. Four days later they went to the Dominican Republic and scored in the ninth minute again on the way to a 4-1 win. Three wins from three, nine goals scored, three conceded.
Costa Rica's reset looks better on paper than on the pitch. Ruiz won 3-0 at Nicaragua, but that was against a heavy underdog and it told us little about how the side handles a team that presses early. Keylor Navas is back in goal and the Saprissa crowd will be close to full, which gives them a real lift. Still, Josimar Méndez is suspended after yellow cards, Roan Wilson was hurt in the Nicaragua game, and Ruiz was still adding names (Matarrita, Anthony Hernández, Mayron George) two days before the match. A back line and midfield being rebuilt on the fly, against a side that already beat them 2-0, is the point I keep coming back to.
Costa Rica also have a lot to play for, since they were fighting to stay out of relegation, so I do not expect them to sit back. That suits Haiti, whose goals in these games came with the opponent stretched. Line-ups were not out when I looked.
