This one turns on what each side needs. Honduras sit fourth on three points and have to win their last group game, while Jamaica are second on six and a draw is enough to see them through. I side with the visitors because they are the team that can play the game on their terms, and Honduras have been shaky when they lead or have to chase.
Jamaica arrive unbeaten away in their last five, with four wins, six goals scored and none conceded, and they kept a clean sheet in 6 of their last 10 overall. Their latest outing was a 2-0 win in El Salvador in which they had 13 shots to 4 and two thirds of the ball. Some of that run came against modest opposition, so I read it as support for the view and nothing more.
Honduras have been inconsistent. They lost 2-3 at home to Suriname in their opener, then went to Martinique, scored first after eight minutes and still lost 2-1 to a goal in the 88th minute. Across their last ten they average 1.1 goals a game, which is not much for a side that must force the issue.
The first meeting was Honduras 1-0 in Kingston. They scored in the 14th minute and held on with ten men after Derek Moncada was sent off in the 68th minute, finishing with 7 shots on target to Jamaica's 3. That red card was later cancelled, so he is available again. One early goal decided that night, and Jamaica pushed hard once the extra man arrived.
Put together, one side needs the win, the other is happy to take a point, and the recent form does not make Honduras a safe home favourite. That mix of motive and form is why I backed Jamaica in this one.
