Finland are the group leaders and the shorter price, but the first meeting between these two was far closer than that suggests. Nine shots each, expected goals of 0.66 to 0.40 and a goalless draw, even though Finland held 61% of the ball. I think the gap at a neutral ground is smaller than the table says, and Belarus are the side I want here.
Finland's last result needs a second look. They beat Albania 2-1, but Albania had a player sent off in the 22nd minute and still had more shots, 14 to 11, and the better chances, 0.95 to 0.53 on expected goals. The 7-0 over San Marino tells us little more. Beyond those two games, the base data shows Finland losing 0-1 at home to Malta in World Cup qualifying, then 0-4 to Germany and 1-2 to Hungary in friendlies.
They also lose Kaan Kairinen, who is suspended after two yellow cards, so the midfield has to be rebuilt around Kamara, who is back after a year out of the squad. Pohjanpalo and Walta, with three and five goals this campaign, are the real threat, and that is the part of the game Belarus have to manage.
Belarus have been hard to score on under Goncharenko: two goals conceded in three Nations League games and none in the last meeting. The 4-0 against San Marino came with goals from Kontsevoy, Shumansky and Ebong, so there is some bite going forward. The reading I take is a tight, even game of the kind we saw in Helsinki, where Belarus get enough to take it.
