I'm siding with the home team in Zenica. Bosnia have lost only one of their last eight at home, and Poland arrive without the suspended Lewandowski and with Kaminski injured. Poland's six goals against Romania came after a red card and a penalty in the 22nd minute, so I don't read that scoreline as proof the attack is flying.
The first meeting finished 0-0 in Warsaw, with Poland on 0.73 xG and Bosnia on 0.31, so neither side ran away with it. Since then Poland lost 1-3 at Sweden, where Sweden had the better chances, and Bosnia drew 1-1 with the same Sweden at home after a late equaliser from Alajbegovic. Away from home Poland have won only two of their last eight, both against Malta and Lithuania.
Bosnia's way in is dead balls and wide play. In Warsaw they had a corner goal ruled out and Alajbegovic forced a save from a tight angle, and at Romania they scored four. Dzeko has retired after his farewell against Sweden, so Tabakovic is expected to lead the line, while Poland's likely replacement for Lewandowski is Zukowski.
A home side that rarely loses against an away side that rarely wins on the road is the matchup I'd rather lean on, and the home crowd in Zenica should add to that.
