This match is about whether territory turns into a result. Juventus create far more than Celta Vigo on every shot-based measure, but their finishing has run behind their chances, so the gap in chances is clearer than the gap on the scoreboard is likely to be.
Over their last nine games with shot data, Juventus average about 18 shots to 8 against, roughly 11 box shots to under 5, and an expected-goals margin of about plus 1.4 per game. Celta over ten games sit level: about 1.06 expected goals for and 1.07 against, with box shots almost even. Away from home Juventus still carry about plus 1.1 over four league rows, while Celta's home margin is between slightly negative and modestly positive depending on whether you count the game they played a man short.
The absences matter by role. Juventus are without Thuram, Locatelli, Yildiz and Boga, the midfield engine and the creators, but that is the same group that was missing at Cagliari, where they still had 22 shots and about 1.9 expected goals against a side that managed four shots. So the volume figure already contains the injuries. Celta's fresh problem is up front: both nominal centre-forwards, Duran and Iglesias, are out, which leaves Jutgla and Alvarez to carry the transition game with little depth behind them.
I expect Juventus to hold the ball, shoot from range when the box is crowded, and create most of their danger after the break, when the bench of Kolo Muani and Alajbegovic comes on. Celta will defend in a back five with wing-backs and try to turn second balls into quick passes. The real swing is a first Celta goal from a turnover or a set piece, which is exactly how Cagliari scored from one shot. Celta's own best attacking rows came against weaker sides; against Elche and Real Sociedad they produced under half a goal of expected quality.
That's why I'm siding with Juventus to win this one. They need to out-create Celta over ninety minutes and not give the first goal cheaply, and the longest comparable sample says they do the first part by a wide margin. A draw remains a live outcome given their finishing, but the balance of the measured chances points to the visitors.
