Illawarra's 1-4 start was not built by the roster that takes the floor in this match, but one weakness has followed every version of it: they foul far more than they draw fouls, and they lose the glass. Tasmania are a side that lives at the free-throw line and in the post. Illawarra's answer is three-point volume, and the new import Kelan Martin makes it more dangerous. This looks like a close, slow game, and the battle in the lane decides it.
Illawarra opened with three road games, cut Darius Days, and only debuted Martin, a stretch power forward, a week ago. That unit is 1-1: a big home win over Adelaide with 15 made threes, then a heavy loss at South East Melbourne. What has not changed in any of the five games is the free-throw gap. Opponents took 25, 32, 16, 23 and 43 free throws against them, while Illawarra drew only 11 to 25. That is roughly eleven fewer trips to the line every night, and it showed even in the home win. They were also out-rebounded badly at Sydney and Brisbane.
The cause is still there. With Peatling out with a foot injury, there is no real size behind Sam Froling except Maker. In the game where Froling played only 16 minutes, Illawarra conceded 43 free throws.
Tasmania's 3-1 was built by the same group that travels here. Hamilton, Drmic and Deng were already missing in those wins, and Scott Roth leaned on an eight-man rotation. They grind, and they get to the line 23 to 31 times a game. Magnay and Bannan both put up 22 points inside at Brisbane, and Armstrong is the late-game creator who scored 29 there.
The key matchup is Froling and Maker against Magnay and Bannan. Early fouls on Froling push Illawarra into small groups, and Tasmania's post game takes over. Martin's spacing pulling Bannan away from the basket is Illawarra's best lever, and their three-point shooting is the swing factor.
I expect a tight first half, with Illawarra perhaps ahead early on threes. The middle quarters, when bench minutes and fouls pile up, are where Tasmania should start to get to the line. Both of Tasmania's recent wins were decided late, and this one should go into the last minutes as a one-possession game.
The market moved toward the home side on home court, Martin's arrival and Tasmania's injury list. The injuries were already part of Tasmania's results, though, and Illawarra's foul and rebounding problem is exactly what Tasmania's style attacks. That's why I'm siding with Tasmania to win this one.
