This Badalona derby is being read through the Supercopa final, but the units behind that result have changed. Joventut's big win a month ago was built on a hot three-point night and a frontcourt that included Kraag, who is now out alongside Tomic. Barcelona lose games at the free-throw line, and Joventut is a team that rarely gets there. The match looks like a close, guard-led game where Joventut's best weapon is the glass, not the whistle.
Start with the meeting everyone remembers. Joventut won 101-87, shooting 17 of 33 from three with Laprovittola going 9 of 13. In its four other recent boxes Joventut shot between 25 and 33 percent from deep, and Laprovittola went 2 of 11 against Andorra. Barcelona actually won the free-throw battle 26 to 11 in that final and still lost, because of the boards and that shooting night.
Barcelona's losses this autumn have a clear pattern. Against Zalgiris, Dubai and Olympiacos the free-throw count went heavily against them, and every win with a box came with Barcelona taking more free throws than the opponent. Joventut draws few: between 11 and 23 attempts in its last five games. Rubio and Laprovittola run the offence through pick-and-roll and kick-outs, which produces threes, not trips to the line.
The absences sharpen this. Without Tomic and Kraag, Joventut's frontcourt is Birgander, Nogues in short minutes and Sulejmanovic at the four. Barcelona bring four or five bigs in Nebo, Balcerowski, Evbuomwan, Ubal and Nkamhoua, and they out-rebounded Olympiacos and Valencia. The glass is still Joventut's best route, but it is thinner than in the final.
The schedule is real for Barcelona, a third game in about a week after Thursday's overtime. But the load was spread across ten or eleven players, with nobody above 29 minutes even in that overtime game, and the trip is a short ride up the coast.
Expect Joventut to come out with the crowd and Rubio's tempo, and a three-point spurt is how they can pull away. If Joventut's shooting sits at its normal level, the game should stay close into the fourth quarter, where Barcelona's depth meets a short Joventut frontcourt. That's why I'm siding with Barcelona to win the derby on the road.
