Koda

This series has not been decided by ballparks or momentum. It has been decided by which pitchers were on the mound. Chicago won the two games its best arms covered, and Cleveland won the two games that Chicago's middle relievers had to pitch. For the deciding game, the question is which side gets to use its best pitching for the most innings.

Game 1 of this Central League first stage looks like a low-scoring starters' game at Tokyo Dome. Both Inoue and Higashi have dominated these exact lineups on very little traffic, so neither offence is at its best here. The difference sits in how each starter arrives: one is in sharp, steady form, the other comes off a heavier September and a long layoff. If the first six innings go to the steadier arm, a one-run game decided late is the most likely shape.

Illawarra's 1-4 start was not built by the roster that takes the floor in this match, but one weakness has followed every version of it: they foul far more than they draw fouls, and they lose the glass. Tasmania are a side that lives at the free-throw line and in the post. Illawarra's answer is three-point volume, and the new import Kelan Martin makes it more dangerous. This looks like a close, slow game, and the battle in the lane decides it.

Game 3 of this ALDS comes down to the middle innings. Both clubs are opening with a reliever, so the real question is who covers innings three through six. Chicago have a quick turnaround with Game 4 coming straight after, and they're holding arms back. Cleveland are facing elimination and won't hold anything back.

Neither side brings a real starter to Gocheok, and that shapes the whole match. Hanwha's Jung Woo-ju is going out for a short test of about three innings, so the league's leakiest staff has to cover most of the game from the bullpen. Kiwoom answers with Kim Sung-jin, a reliever who only moved into a starting role in late July. When both teams need this many arms, I expect runs to come from both dugouts.

Two games, two separate reasons. In Tulsa, OKC is resting six regulars for the front end of a back-to-back, while New Orleans has no game for a couple of days. In San Diego, the Brewers send out a starter who hasn't gotten past the third inning in a month, against a Padres lineup that has been getting on base all series and just hasn't cashed in.

Game 3 looks like a pitchers' duel to me. Chris Sale takes the mound on extra rest against a Dodgers lineup he completely shut down this summer, and the Braves' bats are ice cold going into it. After the off day, both bullpens can line up their best arms behind a real starter. I don't see many runs in this one.

I expect a grind in Ankara. Turk Telekom play slow, low-scoring basketball, and Roma arrive tired after a road game in Bologna and a long trip east. Neither side shoots the three well, so I don't see where a shootout would come from. The table makes Roma look like the hot team, but that's based on a single round.

Doosan arrive in Busan with their postseason spot already secured, and that changes how they treat this game. Gwak Bin starts, but his manager has framed it as his final outing before resting for the wild-card game, so there is little reason to push him deep. Lotte's recent dry spell came against the league's best pitching staff, not at home. The game turns on what happens once Gwak hands the ball over.

Milano arrive in Verona at the worst point of their week. This is their third game in about a week, with two hard EuroLeague nights behind them and a trip to Maccabi Tel Aviv right after. The rotation is set to be heavily reshuffled. Verona are rested, at home for the first time in the top flight, and have exactly the kind of quick guards that make a tired favourite work for every possession. I expect this game to be closer than the gap between the two names suggests.

This match comes down to a settled team against a team that is still being built. Udine kept their coach and their system from a solid season, and the new players are fitting into a structure that already works. Cantù have a new coach and an almost completely new roster, and so far it shows. Two games into a season, I trust the team that already knows what it is doing.

This is the Hawks' last regular-season game, and the team showing up in Sendai is not the one that won 91 games. They have already pulled several regulars and most of their late-inning bullpen to get ready for the Climax Series. On the mound, Kenta Maeda has been sharp lately, while Taiga Kamichatani is coming back from a long gap between starts. I'm siding with Rakuten in this one.

Game 2 comes down to how many innings each side can actually cover. The Dodgers hand the ball to Blake Snell, who hasn't allowed more than one run in any start since he got healthy in August. Atlanta are opening with Ray Kerr on two days' rest, a day after another bullpen game. I'm backing the gap in the middle innings, not just the Dodgers' name.

Both of these ACB games follow the same pattern. A Euroleague side finishes a heavy week on the road, against a home team that has had the whole week to prepare for its first game in front of its own fans. Valencia go to Zaragoza and Barcelona go to Murcia, each with less than two days since a European away game. That gap in legs and preparation is what I'm backing in both games.

Two games where the headline numbers hide what's actually walking onto the floor. At Jingu, both starters show up in worse shape than their names suggest, in a park where each of them has been hit hard. In Santiago, Real Madrid arrive on their third game in five days after two Euroleague road losses, against a rested Obradoiro side playing its first home game back in the top flight. Both picks come down to the current state of these teams rather than their reputations.

Two end-of-season games where one side has something real to play for and the other doesn't. KT are chasing the KBO regular-season title and send out a starter in the best form of his year against a Lotte side that's out of the race. In Yokohama, the BayStars need their final game for playoff seeding, while Hanshin come in the day after clinching the pennant. Both picks turn on that gap in urgency, backed by who is actually on the mound.

NC and SSG have been out of the postseason race for a while now, and when these two meet, the scoreboard tends to fill up. Nine of their ten meetings this season have been slugfests, NC's staff has been leaking runs for weeks, and with nothing left to play for, neither manager has much reason to lean on his best arms. I expect another busy afternoon in Changwon.

Two games that I think play out the same way: tight, low-scoring, and run by managers who treat every inning like the last. In Milwaukee, Jacob Misiorowski should hold down the hot Padres bats, but San Diego plans to hand the game to one of the best bullpens in baseball early, which makes a big Brewers margin hard to build. At Jamsil, LG and KIA are fighting over third place, and the opener of their series already looked like a playoff game.