This series has not been decided by ballparks or momentum. It has been decided by which pitchers were on the mound. Chicago won the two games its best arms covered, and Cleveland won the two games that Chicago's middle relievers had to pitch. For the deciding game, the question is which side gets to use its best pitching for the most innings.
The road team has won all four games, but that isn't really a venue pattern. In Game 1 Chicago won 3-0 behind an opener and four scoreless innings from Grant Taylor. In Game 2 Shane Burke covered more than five innings and allowed one hit. Cleveland then scored nine runs in each of Games 3 and 4, and both times the big inning came against the arms further down Chicago's pen: four runs in the third inning of Game 3 and six in the sixth inning of Game 4.
The key matchup is Burke against Cleveland's lineup. Cleveland builds innings by being patient, with 48 walks in nine games, and Burke beats that approach by throwing strikes. In Game 2 he retired thirteen in a row, and he has won all three of his starts against Cleveland this season. On the other side, Gavin Williams will pile up strikeouts against a Chicago lineup that swings and misses a lot. But he needed 98 pitches to get through five innings in Game 2, and two days ago he threw a relief inning to close out Game 4.
The pens are the other half of the story. Cleveland's deepest short arms, closer Cade Smith, Gaddis and Herrin, all pitched in both Game 3 and Game 4, and Smith gave up Vargas's home run in the last game. Behind Burke, Chicago has Newcomb, Hicks and Schultz, and each of them pitched only once in those two games. The long-term injuries on both sides were already there for all four games, so they don't change anything here.
I expect a tight game in the early innings, with Williams getting strikeouts and Burke getting quick outs on contact. The turning point comes in the fifth and sixth. Williams's pitch count should hand the late innings to a pen that has been used heavily, while Chicago can go from Burke straight to the three relievers it trusts. Chicago has its Game 1 and Game 2 formula lined up again, so I'm backing the White Sox to win it.
