Two opening-night games, two home sides whose edge sits in a spot the visitors have trouble covering. At Madison Square Garden the stars cancel out, and what is left is the depth behind Joel Embiid. In San Antonio, last spring's series came down to Victor Wembanyama's rim protection against Oklahoma City's outside shooting, and the summer took two of the Thunder's answers to that matchup away.
Knicks vs 76ers. New York return the full unit that won the title (Brunson, Bridges, Hart, Anunoby, Towns) and nobody is on their injury list. Hart missed the preseason finale with ankle soreness but practised fully. Philadelphia look very different with Maxey, Edgecombe, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James and Embiid, and with Embiid on the floor this is close to even. Embiid drawing fouls on Towns is Philadelphia's best lever.
The problem for Philadelphia starts when Embiid sits. Hukporti, Tacko Fall and Dom Barlow are out. Adem Bona missed the whole preseason and Dean Wade hurt his ankle in the finale and missed practice, and both are listed as questionable. That leaves Jabari Walker or a small lineup against Andre Drummond, who grabbed eight rebounds in fifteen minutes in New York's finale. The Knicks won the offensive glass in that game, and Boston out-rebounded Philadelphia badly twice in preseason. Even if Embiid gets Towns into foul trouble, the man who comes in is Drummond, which is exactly the matchup Philadelphia want to avoid.
Both teams were sloppy with the ball in preseason, so turnovers do not favour either side. LeBron is on a managed workload, and Anfernee Simons, their only proven bench scorer, is questionable too. I expect a slow start from New York on ring night and then a game decided in Philadelphia's bench minutes and by a closing five that has done this together before. That's why I'm siding with the Knicks to win.
Spurs vs Thunder. San Antonio won the conference finals in seven, and the pattern on this floor was clear. Wembanyama shuts down the paint, which leaves Shai Gilgeous-Alexander driving into a set defence and the Thunder needing threes. In their two losses here they shot 6 of 33 and 10 of 40 from deep. They went 17 of 38 in their only win in San Antonio.
The summer moved pieces that matter here. Isaiah Joe, Oklahoma City's volume shooter, and Lu Dort, their best point-of-attack defender, are both gone. The turnover edge the Thunder were supposed to have never really appeared core against core: San Antonio averaged 13.4 turnovers in the last five games of the series and Oklahoma City 14.0. Their current absences are deep-bench and rookie players. Harris is out for San Antonio, but they played the whole preseason without him.
The Thunder's best route is their double big. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein against a smaller San Antonio four, with Holmgren pulling Wembanyama away from the rim. Holmgren is cleared to play but hasn't played a game this autumn. A healthy Jalen Williams is the real new factor on their side. San Antonio still won the boards at home in both series wins, and they have size off the bench in Kornet, Champagnie and Bryant.
I expect a hard-fought first half, then a game that turns on the minutes when Wembanyama rests and on Oklahoma City's shooting late. The matchup that decided the series is still there and Oklahoma City now have fewer answers to it, so I'm backing the Spurs to win at home.
