Both of these road teams carry an edge their hosts cannot match with the same tool. Saga have lost their size, and the possessions are leaking out on the glass every night. Utsunomiya rely on the glass and the free-throw line, while the Dolphins win the turnover battle by a wide margin in every game they play. In both games, the bigger and more repeatable window belongs to the visitors.
Saga won their only game with a two-big frontcourt. Then Dudzinski went down with a knee injury expected to keep him out for about two months, Xzavierro has not played since, and Saga turned into a perimeter team with no rim presence. In the two games since, they were outrebounded 23-52 by Hokkaido and 21-45 at Kyoto, and gave up 109 and 115 points. Dotson left at halftime of the last one with a knee problem that has not been explained.
Nagasaki have exactly the pieces to load that. Aguilar pulled down ten rebounds in each of the last two games and Brantley lives inside, and both played even when Baba sat. Saga will shoot plenty of threes at home, but they shot 30 of them with Dotson playing full minutes against Hokkaido and still lost by 19. The middle quarters, when Little sits and Saga have no big at all, are where this should open up. That's why I'm siding with Nagasaki to win by a clear margin.
In Utsunomiya, the Dolphins are 6-0 and every win has come through the possession battle. Opponents have turned it over about 19 times a game against their guard pressure, while they keep their own mistakes to around ten. Saito, Kato and Nakahigashi set the tone, and they have finished well inside too, around 58 percent on twos.
Brex, under a new coach and without last season's top scorer, get their points from threes, the free-throw line through Kell and Fotu, and the offensive glass. Those are real edges, but they are worth a few points, not a run. The one time an opponent pressured Brex's ball handlers, Toyama, they coughed it up 16 times and lost by ten. Expect the Dolphins to build their lead in the second quarter off turnovers. I'm backing the Dolphins to win, and I'm not asking them to cover a big spread.
