This Game 3 has two halves. LG has the steadier starter and KIA has the weaker one, so the early innings lean to the home side. From the sixth inning on it is a different game: KIA's back end has not given up a run in the series, while LG's bullpen is missing several of its regular late arms. The question is whether LG can build a big enough lead before its starting-pitching edge runs out.
Over the season KIA was clearly the better team, with a run difference of +105 against LG's -3, and it has beaten LG nine straight times. Most of those regular-season wins came by one or two runs. That points to late innings and to turning chances into runs, not to blowouts. The first two games of this series followed the same script. LG had 16 hits but scored only 4 runs, and its middle order of Austin and the Moon brothers is 3-for-22.
The starting matchup favours LG on paper. Carrasco has been tidy all year and threw six innings allowing one run in the Wild Card game. Shirakawa has had a hard time against LG this season, giving up 8 runs in just over 9 innings, and Austin has taken him deep twice. But Carrasco has faced KIA only once, and that start lasted just over four innings with four runs allowed.
The key point is that KIA has an answer for its weak part and LG does not. Up 2-0, with Yang and Naile lined up for the next two games, KIA can pull Shirakawa at the first sign of trouble and turn to rested long men. LG cannot fix its late innings the same way. Son is just back from injury and is the best late arm it has, and three regular relievers are missing. KIA's Seong, Cho and Jeon have closed out both games.
LG's best chance is to take a lead of three or more runs early. If the game is still within a run or two going into the late innings, the matchups favour the visitors. That's why I'm siding with KIA Tigers to win this one.
