This opener is closer to even than the names suggest. Boston brings size, rebounding and a huge volume of threes, while Detroit brings a starting unit that has played together and a defence that lives on taking the ball away. Both teams give the ball away often, so the turnover battle is traded in both directions. What separates them is that Boston's top unit has barely played together, while most of its perfect preseason was built by reserves.
Detroit's game is simple: Cunningham runs the pick-and-roll with Duren rolling to the rim, and the defence turns pressure into steals, free throws and transition. In four preseason games its opponents turned it over 27, 32, 19 and 20 times. Boston, rebuilt around Tatum and George after the Brown trade, wins with three-point volume and the glass, with Mitchell Robinson and Queta crushing the rebounding numbers in several preseason games.
The key matchups: Walsh, named as Boston's stopper, on Cunningham. Ausar Thompson and Detroit's ball pressure against a new Boston handling group whose starters turned it over 11, 16 and 20 times in preseason. And on the glass, Duren and Collins against Robinson and Queta, which is Boston's clearest edge now that Stewart is gone from Detroit's frontcourt.
The injury lists change little. Boston is only without Devin Carter, a reserve guard, and its whole top group is available. Detroit lists only Prince, who is not in the rotation, and Duren is reported at full speed after missing camp. Both teams come in with the same rest.
The likely flow: Boston could lead early, since Detroit's first quarters were its weakest in preseason. The middle quarters are where Detroit's pressure did its damage, especially when the opponent's bench handlers were on the floor. Then it comes down to Cunningham against Tatum and George late, at home.
The market drifted toward Boston on star power, a preseason record built largely by backups, and heavy public money, without any new fact about who actually plays. In an opener the starters play long minutes, and Detroit's continuous unit with its repeated pressure mechanism is the side the price undersells. That's why I'm siding with Detroit to win this one at home.
