Two games where one side owns a mechanism the other cannot answer the same way. In Seoul, a defence that takes away the three meets an offence that lives on the three and is missing one of its late-game creators. In Chiba, a home side that has been bleeding rebounds since two import bigs went down hosts a visitor built around two bigs. Both matchups point at the same weak spot every possession.
Samsung are 5-0, and they have done it the hard way: every win was close and came as the pre-match underdog. Kerem Kanter is the engine inside, putting up about 26 points and 11 rebounds in heavy minutes, while the half-court defence has allowed the lowest three-point percentage in the league. DB went 9 of 32 against them and JKJ 3 of 25. Samsung did not win with hot shooting of their own, and they do not force many turnovers, so this is a half-court team that wins with structure.
KCC need threes. Louis King and Heo Hoon run the pick-and-roll and the team shoots the ball well from deep, but without Heo Ung, who has missed the last games with a pelvis problem and was still described as out in the previews, the offence has been the league's worst. The common opponents tell the story: Samsung beat DB, KT and JKJ by 3, 5 and 8, while KCC lost to those same three by 6, 6 and 7. Shaun Long has slumped to about eight points a game over his last three, which matters because he is the one asked to deal with Kanter.
Expect Samsung to lead early through Kanter post touches, with the second quarter as their soft spot while the rotation thins. After the break, Samsung's three-point defence meets KCC's late-creation problem. That's why I'm siding with Samsung to win this by more than a single basket.
In Chiba, Kyoto win from the inside. Charles Jackson and Michael Phillips take most of their shots near the rim, and their half-court defence has held opponents to 65-89 points over the last six. Chiba lost Costello and Randolph from the frontcourt, and since then they have lost the rebound count by 13 at Kobe, 11 at Hokkaido and 18 against Tokyo SR. They have conceded 94 or more in seven of their last nine.
Chiba's way back is three-point volume through Togashi, Segawa and Nate Williams, plus running off Kyoto turnovers. But Chiba have not been forcing many turnovers lately, and even in their shootout win at Hokkaido they lost the glass badly. Watanabe hurt his foot in the last game, which would only make them smaller against two bigs. Kyoto's free-throw shooting can keep it close late, so I'm backing Kyoto simply to win rather than to win big.
