Utah against Portland looks closer than the two records suggest. Portland's margins away from home came with Ja Morant driving the offence, and he is now out for weeks. Utah's short-handed group has already stayed close at home against two stronger opponents. In Charlotte, a thin, three-dependent attack meets one of the league's best defences, and both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back.
Utah without Jaren Jackson Jr., Nurkic and probably Markkanen is a George-led half-court team with Bamba, Hayes and Filipowski up front. Utah's problem is clear: about 17 turnovers a game and very few steals. But that version of Utah was level with San Antonio after regulation, losing only in overtime, and lost to Memphis by five. That is the same Memphis team that beat Portland by 21 just before this game.
Portland lives on three-point volume at a low make rate and on getting to the foul line, where it shoots only around 71 percent. Its wins by seven and eight at Sacramento and the Lakers ran through Morant's rim pressure: 23 points on 8 of 12 inside the arc in Los Angeles. Lillard, Holiday, Avdija and Henderson can share the ball-handling, but they lose the downhill threat that drew fouls and opened the floor.
The likely shape is a fast Utah start, a Portland push in the middle quarters off Utah's giveaways, and a fourth quarter that comes down to whether Portland's threes fall. On the boards Utah has matched or beaten every home opponent. That's why I'm siding with Utah, getting points at home.
Charlotte without Coby White and Kon Knueppel shoots a lot of threes and makes few of them, 28.7 percent across the regular season. It scored 81 against Atlanta and 89 at Detroit, the two strong defences it has met. Philadelphia allows about 105 a game, third-best in the league, and its own offence sits near the bottom.
Philly comes in after a heavy Cup game, with Embiid, LeBron and Maxey all playing well over 30 minutes, then travel. On its first back-to-back Embiid sat the second night and Philly scored 93. Charlotte also played the night before and fades badly in fourth quarters. Charlotte's edge on the glass gives it extra possessions, but it has turned them into little. Even with both teams at their normal level, this projects as a grind. That's why I'm on the low-scoring side in Charlotte.
