Memphis and Sacramento have already shown how quickly a tied game can turn on a fresh answer and a defensive rebound. Melbourne Victory and Central Coast present a different margin question: an early attacking route may produce a lead without producing another clean finish. In both games, the first scoring spell matters less than what each side does on the next possession.
Sacramento can attack through Acuff, LaVine and Sabonis, but Memphis won the rebounding exchange in their previous meeting even before Edey returned. Edey played in Memphis's latest game, while Sacramento's reserve centers remain out and its main bigs carried heavy minutes. Boozer and Spencer have also created when Jerome's scoring was quieter. I expect Memphis to answer Sacramento's guard runs and secure enough late stops, so I'm siding with the Grizzlies to win.
Victory's direct pass into Nduka and Jelacic can trouble Central Coast's replacement central pair. May's return adds a runner, yet Victory's recent attack has depended heavily on Nduka and its trip to Indonesia leaves little recovery time. Central Coast's settled replacements and a later Auglah or Brandtman run give it a route to stay close even if Victory scores first. That's why I'm siding with the Mariners to keep the score tight.
