Melbourne Victory will have most of the ball against Central Coast, but having the ball has not been turning into clear chances for them. Central Coast are a young side still waiting for their first open-play goal of the league season. Both defences do drop off after half-time, so this is a match that should stay tight for a long time before the last half hour decides its shape.
Look past the possession and Victory's attack is thin. In their last three games they had five, four and five shots from inside the box, and only eight of their 32 shots were on target. The exception was the home game against Seoul, with 22 shots and three goals after the hour, but 13 of those shots were blocked. Central Coast's two league goals were both penalties, and the heavy scorelines around them come from a friendly, the previous coach and a game full of penalties and an own goal.
The key duel is May and D'Arrigo against Donnell, the lone holding midfielder. Both are fresh after staying home from the trip to Indonesia, and May admits his rhythm is still coming. Lavale running behind is Central Coast's best open-play idea, and the back line he faces gets Davidson back. Keeper form matters too: Redmayne has seven saves from ten shots on target in the league, which is a tough test for a Victory side that struggles to hit the target.
The absences shape the edges rather than the core. Inserra's injury leaves Victory patching up a wide defensive spot, which is Central Coast's likeliest route to a goal. Central Coast remain without Sainsbury, as they were at Wellington, and their bench is younger and thinner this week.
Expect Victory on the ball and Central Coast in their 4-1-4-1, looking to spring Lavale, with the score level or one goal apart at the hour. The turning point should come between the 50th and 75th minutes. A Victory win by one or two, or a draw with one goal each, is the natural shape of it.
That's why I'm siding with a lower-scoring game here. Both attacks would have to produce far more than they have shown this season to turn it into a shoot-out.
