Two K League games with opposite shapes. Pohang have just changed coach, but the bigger fact is that neither they nor Jeju have a reliable way of creating chances in open play right now. Ulsan and Gangwon are the reverse: two sides that create plenty and give chances away, with a press meeting a slow build-up. The sacking story and the injury headlines tell you less than how each team has actually been scoring.
Pohang first. Their league home games have been very small, at about 1.2 goals a game, and they have scored five in their last seven with 0, 5, 2, 3 and 1 shots on target. The 3-0 defeat at Kashima came in another competition against a far stronger attack, under a coach who has now gone. Caretaker Kim Seong-jae has had a day or two to prepare.
Jeju's trouble is in midfield. Italo, the runner beyond the line, has been missing since early October, Jang Min-kyu's status is unconfirmed, and Yu In-soo was sent off last time. Three of their last four goals came from Neguba's two penalties and a free kick. Hwang In-jae has kept out 13 of the last 18 shots on target, so Jeju's route looks narrow. Expect a shared ball, few shots on target and some corners and free kicks, with rain forecast in the region. That's why I'm siding with a low-scoring game here.
Ulsan against Gangwon is a different picture. Ulsan have scored in eight of their last ten and hit 25 shots with nine on target last time out, and Lee Dong-gyeong's delivery to Kim Young-gwon and Yago works against any press. Gangwon's wide runners also played 180 minutes in six days, which should open up crosses and corners after the hour.
But Ulsan have conceded in eight of their last ten as well, and 26 in 17 at home. Their build-up gives the ball away under pressure, and Gangwon press early. Hwang Mun-ki's surgery costs Gangwon duel work on the flank and Mo Jae-hyun is doubtful, yet the main chance makers remain: Kim Dae-won, Kang Joon-hyuk and Choi Byeong-chan. Gangwon have scored in five straight games and in all three meetings this season.
The first goal is the turning point, but neither order ends the game. If Ulsan score, Gangwon have a route back through Kim Dae-won's service, and if Gangwon score, Ulsan have the volume and fresher legs. That's why I expect both Ulsan and Gangwon to get on the scoresheet.
