Two games here turn on the same question: how much do the headline absences really change? Portland has lost a star guard, but it plays Utah, a team that barely pressures the ball, and Utah has already shown what it looks like without its forwards. Charlotte against Philadelphia is a clash of mirror-image teams, with extra shots on one side and extra possessions on the other. Neither of those extras comes cheaply on offence.
Portland wins through three-point volume and Avdija's drives. It has taken about 45 threes a game and has lived at the free-throw line lately, but after one big defensive night it has conceded 120 or more three games running. Utah is 1-4 and gives the ball away, with 14 to 19 turnovers in every game, and that is the biggest single edge in this match.
The key spot is who handles the ball in the non-starter minutes. Morant's hamstring strain changes Portland's guard order, and if Holiday moves up, the bench loses its best creator, in a game played on short rest after a flight. Morant was not a big part of the three-point volume, and Utah forces the fewest turnovers in the league, so I don't treat this as a star-sized loss. It is a depth loss. Utah's own weak stretch is Collier as the lone handler, and Portland's is the backup centre minutes, which sank it against Memphis while Williams was out.
Utah's recent games matter more than its record. Without Jackson Jr. and Markkanen for most of those two games, it lost to Memphis by five and was level with the Spurs at the end of regulation, and it held its own on the boards both times. George has scored 24, 26 and 31 in his last three, and Utah has been quick out of the gate at home.
I expect Portland to hold a small lead late, with its best chance to pull away in the second and third quarters and Utah hanging around behind George and its finishers at the rim. Portland is still the likelier winner. My claim is about the margin, and that's why I'm siding with Utah to keep this close.
Charlotte takes about 45 threes a game but makes only 28.7% of them, wins the glass by seven a game and turns the ball over about 18 times. Philadelphia is among the stingiest teams in points allowed, holds opponents to 31.4% from three, and has not given up more than 14 threes in any of its six games. It forces turnovers, gets to the line and closes through Maxey, with Simons adding scoring off the bench.
The matchup that matters is Charlotte's front line against a thin Philadelphia centre spot, with Hukporti, Fall and Barlow all out. Diabate and Reid will get second chances, but most of those extra shots are long threes against a defence that contests them well. At the other end, Philadelphia's pressure goes after a Charlotte side relying on Schroder and Miller to create.
The lineups point the same way. Brown missed Philadelphia's last game with knee soreness, which put more on Wade, and Wade took no shots in 27 minutes against the Knicks. Both teams also come in on the second night of a back-to-back, and on its earlier back-to-back Philadelphia had Embiid and James play one game each. If Embiid sits, the Charlotte glass opens up, but Philadelphia loses points too, so the two effects partly offset each other. White and Knueppel have not played a minute in this six-game sample.
Charlotte scored 79 and 89 in its last two, and Philadelphia allowed 93 and 109 in its last two. Only one Charlotte game this season has been a truly high-scoring one, and it took 29 made threes and 50 free throws to get there. Expect an even first half with plenty of long misses, then a third quarter where Charlotte's shooting either carries it or feeds Philadelphia's run. Putting both teams' scoring and defence together, that's why I'm on the low-scoring side of this game.
