Bournemouth's strongest feature is how quickly they can turn a recovery into a forward pass. Leeds bring an extra central defender and a direct outlet, making the first pass beyond the press the key contest. The cup schedule looks demanding for the hosts, but the expected league unit carried a much lighter load than the fixture list suggests.
Cook finding Evanilson, with Tavernier arriving nearby, is a completed attacking connection: it produced the opening goal against Sunderland before the dismissal. The same forward supply appeared against United. Leeds' wing-backs must decide whether to step out toward the ball or protect the space beside their centre-backs.
Elvedi has recovered from illness, and Calvert-Lewin and Okafor have had a normal training week. Leeds therefore have usable receivers for their direct exits. Stach's readiness remains unresolved, while Bournemouth rested Evanilson and gave Petrovic, Smith, Hill and Truffert no cup minutes.
I expect Bournemouth to press for those early forward connections, with Leeds' wider deliveries and midfield arrivals becoming more prominent after the interval. The home side have the clearer demonstrated route to get in front with their expected league core. That's why I'm siding with Bournemouth to win.
