Galatasaray are clearly the stronger side, but they are not the settled unit the name suggests. Their six has changed in every league match, the opposite slot is improvised, and much of the core arrived over the summer. Sultanbeyli are near the bottom and still looking for a win, yet the same six has started both of their league games. The winner is less of a question here than how cleanly it gets done.
Galatasaray's route is volume through Micah Ma'a to Stephen Maar and Efe Mandiraci. They out-attacked Sungurlu 68 to 42 and still dropped a set, because they lose sets through their own errors rather than being beaten. By the press totals, about 34 of Sungurlu's points in that match came from Galatasaray mistakes. Jean Patry has been missing since his thumb injury in the Super Cup, and the second middle has been a different player each time.
The headline against Sultanbeyli is the 0-3 to Gebze, but look at how it happened. Gebze had 12 service points, and Grozdanov's reception broke down. Galatasaray have produced 6 per match this season. Serve at that rate, and Sultanbeyli's side-out should look more like it did at Istanbul BB, where they won sets 25-17 and 25-20, with Dirlic on 21, Grozdanov on 20 and Cam on 14.
The matchup to watch is Dirlic against the Galatasaray block, which made 11 blocks against Onikisubat but only 7 at Sungurlu with a different second middle. Sultanbeyli do not need an attacking edge. They need to keep the ball in play and let the errors come.
Expect Galatasaray to take the opening set, since they have won every league first set and Sultanbeyli start slowly. The second and third are where it gets interesting. Galatasaray lost the third at Sungurlu and needed to save six set points to win it 31-29 against Onikisubat, and Sultanbeyli's two best sets at Istanbul BB came second and third. That's why I'm siding with Sultanbeyli to take at least one set and stretch this match.
