West Ham's biggest weakness is conceding early, and West Brom are one of the sides least likely to exploit it. In Los Angeles the story is different: two defences that give up plenty, one team that needs a win and another with nothing left to protect. One match is about timing, the other about open boxes. Neither is decided simply by the league table.
West Ham under Nuno have 12 different scorers and sit third. Strip out the two 6-0 wins and they still score about two a game. Their failure mode is clear: winless in the five games where they conceded first, and 6 wins and a draw in the seven where they scored first. Seven of the 15 goals they have conceded came inside 20 minutes.
James Morrison's West Brom keep the ball and build late. Only 5 of their 16 goals came in first halves, and they have scored first just 4 times in 12. Their tidy away goals record hides 1.82 xG against per game. Against top-eight sides they have no wins and two goals in four games.
Mavropanos is a genuine loss, as a defender and as a five-goal scorer. Kilman gets a new partner, and Heggebo against that pairing is West Brom's route late on. But Bowen's delivery stays, Kilman and Soucek stay, and West Brom conceded from corners on 17 and 24 October. West Brom rarely punish a slow start, so West Ham should reach the second half level or ahead, then use Bowen and the space behind West Brom's possession. That's why I'm siding with West Ham to win.
The Galaxy under Vanney are a low-possession transition side who score from regains, second balls and Reus's delivery. Their home run looks better than it was: 7.64 xG for and 9.60 against over five games. They sit just below the playoff line, need a win, and have conceded in nine of their last ten.
Austin under Arnaud are eliminated, but their scoring never depended on the table. Uzuni and second balls have produced goals in nine of their last ten, including while behind at LAFC, against Nashville and at Sporting Kansas City. Uzuni scored in both recent meetings with the Galaxy. A Galaxy lead does not shut that route, because they drop deep when ahead.
At the other end, Austin play a back three with Bell out and Ilie Sanchez, a converted midfielder, in the middle, on 2.9 days of rest. They have been leaking after half-time, and the Galaxy's late surges land right there. Expect an even first half with chances both ways, then the game tilts toward the Galaxy while Austin keep coming. That's why I'm siding with goals at both ends here.
