Köln beat Union 5-0 in the cup five days before this rematch, but the shot count from that night tells a much closer story. Union had 17 shots to Köln's 14, 14 of them from inside the box, and got only 4 on target with 7 blocked. Köln put 8 on target, and Said El Mala scored two and set up a third. The scoreline says one team is miles better; the numbers say the gap was finishing and one player, and that changes what Union's plan for revenge should actually look like.
Lustrinelli has been clear about the plan, at least in outline: different compactness, clearly different pressing and access than in the cup, and limiting El Mala's space as the key. Those two aims pull against each other a little. A more aggressive press is exactly what opens the grass behind it, and the cup goals came that way, El Mala from Linton Maina and then Maina from El Mala. And the line that has to cover that space is thin. Felix Uduokhai is suspended after his red at Augsburg, Markgraf and Nsoki are out, and Juranovic is doubtful after missing training through illness.
Köln's side is less comfortable than the 5-0 suggests too. Their own club preview says they travel still looking for a first away point of the season, and the last away league game was a 0-1 at Frankfurt with 0.65 xG. Ache isn't ready, Dallinga and Rondic are out, so the front of the team leans heavily on Bülter and El Mala. If Union do manage to take El Mala out of the game without opening up behind, there isn't much else coming.
The flip side is Union's own end. Six league goals in seven, Andrej Ilic still out after appendix surgery, and Imeri only a possible return. I'd expect Union to take more shots again, as they did in the cup; whether they finish any better is the part nobody can promise, and it's the part that decides whether the press is worth the risk.
