Two matches, both decided by who has to cover the weak minutes. In Tokyo, a turnover-forcing road side meets a big rebounding home team whose guards are on their fifth game in nine days. In Yokohama, the Japan Series second game sets an ace with a long ceiling against a converted reliever, one day after a long extra-inning game that stretched one bullpen much further than the other.
Tokyo Sunrockers vs Diamond Dolphins. Nagoya are unbeaten through seven road games, and they win the possession count. They force about 20 turnovers a game (14 to 25, and 21 against Brex, the best side they had faced) and commit only about 10. What they give away is the glass: against ordinary opponents they lost the boards by 3 to 10. Tokyo are the opposite. They lead the league in rebounding with a deep frontcourt of Hawkinson, Grantham, Williams and Kano, and they get to the line about 19 times a game. But their ball security is only middling, and against the two defences that made 11 steals they turned it over 13 and 17 times. Their huge rebounding margins came against weak or short-handed teams. Against decent sides it was +1, 0 and -3.
The key matchup is Saito against Harper. Harper has to guard Nagoya's engine and also bring the ball up against the pressure, with Vendrame, Yamagiwa, Ohba and Nozaki behind him. Inside, Hawkinson (31 points at Shinshu) against Eatherton is where Tokyo's edge lives. The common opponent tells a story: at Shinshu, Nagoya won by 15 with 6 turnovers, while Tokyo won by 7 with 10 turnovers and lost the boards.
No absences are listed for either side. Tokyo's starting wing Yamazaki has not appeared in the last two box scores, which costs them perimeter depth rather than opening a hole. Nagoya come in on almost four days' rest. Tokyo's last game was a blowout where nobody played more than 19 minutes, so the legs are fresher than the schedule looks, but the real load from Shinshu, with Hawkinson and Alkins over 30 minutes, is still there.
I expect Tokyo to start fast at home, as they usually do in the first quarter. The game should turn in the second and third quarters, where Nagoya's pressure and third-quarter surges meet tired ball-handlers. Live-ball turnovers become transition baskets, and every turnover is a possession Tokyo never get to rebound. I see a close finish, with Nagoya edging it. That's why I'm siding with the Diamond Dolphins to win.
Yokohama BayStars vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. SoftBank lead the series after an 11-inning win built the way they like it: a starter going deep (Uezawa, seven scoreless) and then a top relief chain pitching one inning each. DeNA win low-scoring games with good starting pitching and home runs, but in the opener they scored once in 11 innings and stranded runner after runner.
The structure of this game is length. Moinelo had an ERA of 0.76 over seven regular-season games and comes in on ten days' rest. Ogata throws very hard, but he is a former reliever turned starter, and his only postseason start lasted four innings. That means DeNA probably need four or five relief innings one day after six of their relievers covered the extra innings, and it was their lower arms, Iwata and Baba, who gave up the deciding runs. SoftBank's chain of Matsumoto, Hernandez, Osuna and Sugiyama each threw one inning and can do it again.
The matchup to watch early is Moinelo's control against a DeNA lineup that leans left-handed, with Sano, Tsutsugo and Kajiwara in the middle. If he throws strikes the first time through, the game moves into the middle innings, where Ogata leaves and DeNA's thinner bullpen takes over sooner. Rain is forecast, and a game called after five innings also goes to whoever has won the starters' phase, where Moinelo has the higher ceiling. That's why I'm siding with the Hawks to win.
