Both of these games come down to the middle of the night more than the opening tip. In New Orleans, two winless teams meet, and the gap between them is depth and size, not form. In Portland, an unbeaten home side whose numbers rest on one huge blowout meets a Memphis team that keeps games tight by design. One game should be won in the second and third quarters. The other should still be close late.
New Orleans against Sacramento first. The Pelicans are 0-4, but every regular-season loss has been by one to thirteen points. They live on Zion Williamson's drives and the free throws he draws, with between 22 and 37 attempts a game, and they have a real second unit in Queen, Bey, Mathurin and Herb Jones. They have lost games late, through turnovers and fourth-quarter stalls. The Kings are 0-4 on a much worse margin, lost the glass in every game and shoot around 30 percent from three.
The key matchup is Zion against a Kings frontcourt that is really only Domantas Sabonis. Keegan Murray, Dylan Cardwell and Maxime Raynaud are all out, and the backups at San Antonio played 13 and 18 minutes. Either Sabonis picks up fouls guarding Zion, or smaller forwards try to stop him at the rim. Off the bench, the Kings have lost the second and third quarters in every game sampled. That is exactly where the New Orleans reserves are strongest.
Jordan Poole looks likely to miss the second night of the back-to-back, which thins out the late ball-handling. That is why the Kings' guards should push hard in the fourth quarter. I expect New Orleans to build its lead through the middle quarters and give some of it back late. That's why I'm siding with New Orleans to win the game, not to win big.
Portland against Memphis next. Portland is 3-0, but 41 points of its season margin came in one home rout of Phoenix. On the road against similar teams, the two sides look level: both won at Sacramento, Portland by eight and Memphis by eleven, and Memphis did it without Zach Edey. Portland's widest channel is three-point volume, with 36 to 49 attempts a game. Memphis has held three straight opponents to 10 or 11 made threes on 33 attempts.
Memphis also has the shape of a team built for close games. Its bench window in the second quarter (Post, Spencer, Grant) is its best stretch, it has kept turnovers around 13 in three straight games, and it closes through Ty Jerome and strong free-throw shooting. Portland's best way to pull away is to attack Edey for fouls and win the glass behind Clingan and Robert Williams. The other way is a hot shooting night. The injury report lists only Shaedon Sharpe for Portland, and he has been out all season. Memphis has every rotation player who played at Utah.
I see Portland's home edge as a few points, not a runaway. A single-digit game decided in the last few minutes is the natural shape. That's why I'm siding with Memphis to keep this one close.
