Frosinone and Lecce have useful routes beyond the first midfield challenge, with the next runner posing a particular problem for their defences. Fiorentina and Atalanta also bring established attacking connections into a meeting of changed defensive units. Across these two matches, controlling the receiver after the initial delivery looks more difficult than producing the delivery itself.
Frosinone can press through Masini and then use Ghedjemis to find different arrivals. Against Atalanta, his deliveries supplied Schmid, Calò and Terzić, spreading the finishing work beyond Raimondo. Lecce have recently lost runners on crosses and restarts, making the handover between Gallo and the selected centre-backs a central contest.
Gaspar's suspension changes Lecce's defence and removes a proven corner target. Calò and Calvani are in Frosinone's squad with recovery reports, while Lecce have called up Gabriel, Ndaba, N'Dri and Fatah without establishing unrestricted fitness. Lecce still retain Veiga and Gallo's delivery and the Geubbels or Esteban receiving route against a home side that has repeatedly allowed opponents into its box.
An assertive home opening should bring Lecce's midfield exits into play. As either side advances its fullbacks and adds runners, the next attack has routes into the space left behind. That's why I'm siding with more goals in Frosinone versus Lecce.
In Florence, Fagioli's passing and the inside forwards give Fiorentina ways to bring Jimenez forward and find Pellegrino or a following runner. Their Como performance contained crosses, a header against the post and chances from different suppliers. Atalanta's recent defensive problems concern support around central duels and tracking the receiver after wide service, which fits those home routes.
Pongracic's injury changes Fiorentina's centre, where Dragusin and Viery already shared part of the Inter match. Atalanta lose Bellanova and Scamacca after both appeared in their latest game; Scalvini and Sulemana return to the reported squad without established full-match workloads. Zappacosta's delivery and the De Ketelaere–Krstovic connection remain usable: their latest match included both service into the striker and his layoff to an arriving midfielder.
The opening exchanges should test the exits before either team establishes sustained pressure. A lead would then bring the trailing side's fullbacks and supporting runners further forward, testing defensive relationships that have recently allowed repeated box access. That's why I'm also siding with more goals in Fiorentina versus Atalanta.
