Two Championship matches where the league table tells a louder story than the football does. Norwich's reputation for goals was built with a forward who is now out until January, and Watford away have barely threatened anyone. Stoke sit far above Preston, yet their own chance numbers are worse than the bottom side's. Both games look tighter and smaller than their names suggest.
Start at Carrow Road. Norwich scored 16 in their first eight league games at 1.78 expected goals a match. Toure went off injured on 20 September, and in the four games since they have scored four, one of them an own goal, at 0.94. Their last two home games both ended 0-1, and they have been out-created at home four games running.
Watford are a different side on the road. Two goals in six away games, 0.82 expected goals a match, and never more than one goal in any of them. They concede early, with 10 of their 11 away goals against coming before half-time, but once behind they mostly stop the bleeding.
The key matchup is Norwich's front line against a deep Watford back unit that held Wolves to one goal from 24 shots. Kvistgaarden's movement gave Norwich their best attacking display in this run at Charlton, but the 10 role is unsettled, with Maghoma carrying a knock and Mattsson doubtful. Watford are without Bove's carrying, though he missed the Wolves game too, so that back group is not new.
I expect Norwich on the ball, a first goal for them from a turnover, a cross or a corner, and then a Watford chase with little behind it. Second-half output away has averaged just 0.47 for Dionisi's side. That's why I'm on the low-scoring side of this one.
At Stoke, the picture is about margin. Robins turned the season around with a back three, but the wins come from small things: set pieces, midfield arrivals and late goals from the bench. They have 18 goals from 10.98 expected goals across 12 league games, and five of their six wins were by a single goal. Preston are bottom, yet their chance balance is better than Stoke's.
The mesh matters here. Preston will sit in the shape that took 19 shots against West Brom and hand Stoke the ball, and that is when Stoke create least: 0.65 against Sheffield United and 1.05 against Bristol City with more than 60% possession. Robins himself said they took the safe option last week.
The absences narrow that further. Gallagher and Bocat are out, Cissé is expected to miss after going off early against Bristol, and Hirst is left as the only centre-forward. Stoke's dead balls from McGlynn and Galbraith remain a real route against a Preston side likely without Lindsay, and that is how I see them scoring. A second goal is the harder part.
Expect a quiet first half, Stoke's substitutes after the hour, and Kenny or Lang looking to run into space on the break. Stoke can win this the way they usually do. That's why I'm siding with Preston to keep it close.
