[26-27 UEFA Conference League] FC Midtjylland vs Ajax preview and analysis Kick-off: November 5, 17:45 UTC
FC Midtjylland look for their forwards with long balls over the defensive block, while Ajax use possession to keep opponents away from their own goal. Absences in the middle of the pitch will directly affect how both teams try to carry out those plans.
1. Match overview and team form
FC Midtjylland have one point in the Conference League but remain unbeaten after 13 rounds in the domestic league. Away to Nordsjælland recently, they went into half-time 2-0 down, with an expected goals against figure of 3.67. Second-half substitutes Wätjen and Johannesen scored the equaliser and winner to complete the comeback. TV 2 Sport said the substitutes had changed the result (local report, November 1). In their Conference League home match against Sint-Truiden VV, though, they lost without scoring despite an xG of 2.9. Their league comeback ability is clear, but they have not shown the same finishing in Europe.
Coach Mike Tullberg said one goalkeeper and six outfield players would be unavailable (Campo, November 4). Bakker is likely to start in place of Lössl. He has played 540 minutes this season and also featured against Sint-Truiden VV. In central defence, Erlić is out and Jensen is also on the injury list. Christensen and Diao are likely to face Arokodare. Martínez and Gogorza are among the attacking absentees, but Etim, Iheanacho, Rajović and Cho Gue-sung remain available. Reports differ on whether Hyun-Seok Hong will play. Tullberg said he would pick his starting team with the next league match in mind (Bold, November 4). He could bring on attacking options in the second half as he did against Nordsjælland, though the absences have reduced his bench choices.
Ajax have three points and have held on to their leads in recent matches against AZ Alkmaar and Sparta Rotterdam. Their performances have been less convincing than those results suggest. Against AZ, their opponents had 19 shots, while Ter Stegen saved five shots on target. After the Sparta Rotterdam match, Klaassen said they had lost control early and could not move the ball forward from the back in the second half (VoetbalPrimeur, October 26). Arokodare scored with a header from a cross and by winning an aerial duel after a long pass. Brandt, who helped create that route, is injured and out of the travelling squad today. Amrabat is also out and Bissouma is ineligible, so coach Michel has even mentioned defenders such as Baas and Kehrer as midfield options (Ajax Showtime, November 4). The teams have had four and five days of rest respectively, a small difference.
2. Matchup analysis
FC Midtjylland's first attack depends less on the initial aerial duel for a long ball than on who wins the loose ball afterwards. Bakker explained that the team defends in a compact block and looks for powerful forwards with long balls on the counter (Ajax Showtime, November 4). Ajax will have to deal with those second balls without Amrabat and Bissouma. If Midtjylland win them, Etim or Iheanacho can move into the box. If Ajax keep possession, they can start the buildup Michel wants, and Midtjylland will have to rebuild their defensive block. Brandt's absence also affects Ajax's ability to turn a regain into an attack.
Ajax's response is to supply Arokodare. Recent goals have shown what can come from Ujane's crosses on the left and Rosa's forward runs on the right. Midtjylland will have to contend with Arokodare in central defence without Erlić. They also conceded a header at the far post from a cross against Sint-Truiden VV. Even if Midtjylland crowd the space in front of the box, the danger will remain if they cannot limit the number of crosses that reach Arokodare. In the second half, Ajax's midfield, which has recently lost control while defending leads, could be tested by Midtjylland's forwards who have changed games as substitutes.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We back FC Midtjylland to win. Ter Stegen's saves and Arokodare's aerial duels played a big part in Ajax's recent wins. Both can feature today, but Amrabat and Brandt are out of the travelling squad and Bissouma is ineligible (Ajax Showtime, November 4). Midtjylland can target the changes in Ajax's midfield by winning the second balls after long passes. If the match stays tight into the second half, substitutes could again make the difference, as Wätjen and Johannesen did against Nordsjælland.
The market has leaned slightly towards Ajax on the back of their recent results. But the players who produced those wins and the midfield available today are different. Midtjylland also have attacking absences and missed many chances against Sint-Truiden VV, so we expect a narrow result rather than a high-scoring game. If Ajax's reshuffled midfield wins the second balls and keeps supplying Arokodare with crosses, Midtjylland's gap in central defence could have the greater impact.
[Final picks · by market · based on Betman listings] 1X2: Home win, FC Midtjylland's long balls and second-ball play target an Ajax midfield missing defensive midfielders, and Midtjylland have a route to changing the result through second-half substitutes. Handicap +1: Home win, Ajax would need to control the game with a reshuffled midfield to win by two goals, which looks difficult. We expect Midtjylland to avoid defeat. Over/under 3.5: Under, both teams are missing players who helped create attacks, leaving each with fewer routes to goal.
