[26-27 UEFA Europa League] AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi TC Preview and Analysis Kick-off: November 5, 17:45 UTC
We expect AC Milan to have more of the ball. The key question is whether their changed starting lineup can break down Ferencvárosi TC’s defence while a reshuffled back line holds up against the visitors’ transition attacks.
1. Match overview and team form
AC Milan coach Ruben Amorim said the team intends to control the game, while admitting it has struggled to pin opponents inside the penalty area and create chances (Milan News, November 4). Recent results show that possession and chances have not always gone hand in hand. Milan beat Inter 3-1 but were outshot 19-7, with Mike Maignan’s saves important in protecting the lead. They managed just eight shots despite having 66% possession against Bologna. Today, Ferencvárosi TC coach Balazs Borbely said his team would give up possession and defend with discipline (Nemzeti Sport, November 4).
AC Milan played five competitive matches between October 19 and November 1, and have an away trip to Genoa on November 8. We expect around six changes to the starting lineup from the previous game. Maignan is suspended, so Lorenzo Torriani, who has played 58 minutes this season, is expected to make his first start for the senior team (Milan News, November 4; Radio Rossonera, November 3). Centre-backs Fikayo Tomori and Matteo Gabbia are injured, while Strahinja Pavlović is being rested to manage his workload. Milan conceded three goals in the second half against Bologna after Tomori was substituted. The goals came about in different ways, but Sankhoun Diawara and Davide Bartesaghi, who are expected to start today, both featured in that second-half defence.
Milan still have options in attack. Omari Giraud-Hutchinson started the press that led to the equaliser against Bologna, and Alphadjo Cissè scored twice in that game. Luka Modrić and Diego Moreira, who have recently contributed to set-piece goals, are expected to start on the bench. Ferencvárosi TC had four days to recover after facing Paks FC on November 1. Borbely said only Krisztián Lisztes did not travel with the squad (Ferencvárosi TC official website, November 4). The key players who have scored from opponents’ turnovers and set pieces during the club’s three-match Europa League winning run are available.
2. Matchup analysis
AC Milan’s first task is to turn possession into chances in the box. If Adrien Rabiot plays behind Gonçalo Ramos as expected, Ferencvárosi TC defensive midfielders Habib Maïga and Ádám Nagy will have to track his movement. If they adjust their defensive positions when Rabiot receives the ball or enters the box, Milan’s wide attackers could use the space to find Ramos. Giraud-Hutchinson’s pressing could also create an opportunity when the visitors try to build from the back. But if Ferencvárosi TC keep their defensive shape in front of the box, Milan could have shots without scoring, as they did recently against Benfica. When Modrić, Christian Pulišić and Moreira come on could shape Milan’s attack in the second half.
At the other end, Milan’s new defensive combination will be tested. Against Viktoria Plzeň, Ferencvárosi TC capitalised on a turnover in midfield, with Kristoffer Zachariassen driving forward to score. Against SCU Torense, Yusuf Bamidele intercepted a pass out from the back and opened the scoring. If Milan lose the ball while building, how quickly Bamidele is supported by Veljko Birmančević and the other attacking players will matter. If Ferencvárosi TC spend long spells defending and leave Bamidele to lead the break alone, their counterattacks may not go far.
The starting lineups could also matter at set pieces. Birmančević assisted Mariano Gómez’s headed goal from a corner against SCU Torense. Both are candidates to start today. Milan will have to defend that route without Maignan, and if Modrić and Moreira, who have created chances from free kicks and corners recently, start on the bench as expected, other players will need to take charge of those deliveries early on.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Milan to have possession but struggle to create a steady stream of clear chances from the first half. Ferencvárosi TC still have routes to goal through turnovers and set pieces against the home side’s defence. Milan can add attacking threat with their second-half substitutions, so even if either team takes the lead, the other should have a way back into the game. We expect a close contest, with neither side winning and the scoring staying modest.
The market strongly favours an AC Milan win, pointing to home advantage and squad depth. The key is whether the factors behind their recent wins are still there in today’s starting lineup. Maignan is suspended, while Modrić and Moreira are expected to start on the bench. Amorim has acknowledged Milan’s problem creating chances in the box, and Ferencvárosi TC will look to exploit it with their defensive block (Milan News and Nemzeti Sport, November 4). If Modrić, Pulišić and Moreira start instead, Milan are more likely to create chances early, and our outlook would shift towards the home side.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman offerings] Full-time result: Draw. Milan may struggle to turn possession into chances in the box, while the visitors’ set pieces and the hosts’ substitutions after the 60-minute mark give each side a route back into the game. Handicap -1: Loss. The early goal and defensive solidity needed for a two-goal win are not both in place today. Handicap -2: Loss. With Milan’s defensive vulnerabilities still present, there is little basis for a three-goal win. Handicap -3.5: Loss. Milan’s starting attacking midfielders may not create enough chances to justify a four-goal win. Under 3.5: Under. Milan may create few chances in the box for 60 minutes, while the visitors are likely to concede possession, leaving little reason to expect more than three goals in total.
