[26-27 KOVO Men] Samsung Fire Bluefangs vs. Hyundai Capital Skywalkers Preview and Analysis Kick-off: November 5, 10:00 UTC
Hyundai Capital Skywalkers won the cup competition meeting 3-0. Samsung Fire Bluefangs were without WANG BIN at the time, though, while Hyundai Capital Skywalkers had Tae Jun Jeong, who is now out injured.
1. Match overview and team form
Since appointing Tommy Tillikainen, Samsung Fire Bluefangs have added setter Kwang Woo Yoo and libero Yong Chan Bu, with HOKI and WANG BIN on opposite sides of the attack. In the October 20 cup match, WANG BIN had joined the team late, and HOKI scored 23 points, but Samsung Fire Bluefangs lost all three sets to Hyundai Capital Skywalkers, 20-25. Their first official match with WANG BIN and HOKI together came on November 1 against KB Insurance Stars, and they won 3-1. WANG BIN scored 35 points and HOKI added 22, though their opponent are currently seventh in the standings (MyDaily, November 1; Newsis, November 2). The key today is whether the pair can keep that production going against the opposition's serve.
The added firepower has not fixed their issues with managing sets. Samsung Fire Bluefangs lost to OK Savings Bank 읏맨 on October 22 despite taking the first two sets, making 43 unforced errors along the way (Newsis, October 22). On November 1, they also let a 24-21 lead in the third set slip. Concerned about Kwang Woo Yoo's workload, coach Tillikainen has adjusted the training load (Star News, November 2), while backup setter Lee Ho Geon is serving in the military (MyDaily, October 22). If the sets run long and Yoo needs to come off, Tae Seong Park will have to lead a new attacking combination.
Hyundai Capital Skywalkers have added new opposite JIANG CHUAN to LEONARDO LEYVA MARTINEZ and Su Bong Heo, spreading the attack across three players. In their October 31 season opener against Korean Air Jumbos, they lost all three sets after reaching 20 points. Coach Philippe Blain said their reception struggled against float serves, while their quick attack efficiency and blocking also fell short (No Cut News, October 31). With Tae Jun Jeong injured, they are also rebuilding their middle blocker combination. The teams meet after playing on November 1 and October 31 respectively, so the difference in rest is small.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup is Hyundai Capital Skywalkers' serve against the reception of WANG BIN, Woo Jin Kim and Yong Chan Bu. JIANG CHUAN contributed consecutive points with his serve in the October 20 meeting, and LEONARDO LEYVA MARTINEZ did the same in the cup final. Su Bong Heo also had an ace on October 31. If their serves disrupt Samsung Fire Bluefangs' first pass, it will be harder for Kwang Woo Yoo to distribute the ball to WANG BIN and HOKI. WANG BIN in particular has to keep up his November 1 attacking output while also taking the opposition's serve. If Yong Chan Bu can steady the reception, Yoo can use both wings in turn.
There is a target on the other side of the net as well. During the first set against Korea Electric Power Vixtorm on October 24, Blain replaced JIANG CHUAN with Ho Jin Shin. After Shin joined the defence, the team won three straight sets (MyDaily, October 24). Samsung Fire Bluefangs could reduce JIANG CHUAN's attacking opportunities by putting Hyundai Capital Skywalkers' reception under pressure with their serve, but Blain already has a substitution option that worked.
The second matchup is Samsung Fire Bluefangs' attacks from both wings against Hyundai Capital Skywalkers' block without Tae Jun Jeong. In the cup match, Hyundai Capital Skywalkers used their block to shut down an attack focused on HOKI. This time, WANG BIN is also involved, forcing the middle blockers to track both sides. Samsung Fire Bluefangs, in turn, will need to handle the attacks of LEONARDO LEYVA MARTINEZ, Su Bong Heo and JIANG CHUAN, or Ho Jin Shin if he comes on as a substitute. If the sets are close, both teams will need to finish well. Hyundai Capital Skywalkers repeatedly made errors after 20 points in their two matches against Korean Air Jumbos, and Samsung Fire Bluefangs have also failed to hold a lead in a recent set.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We give Hyundai Capital Skywalkers the edge because of their serve and substitution options. If Samsung Fire Bluefangs can hold up in reception with Yong Chan Bu leading the way, WANG BIN and HOKI can attack the middle left open by Tae Jun Jeong's absence from both wings. With Hyundai Capital Skywalkers' recent errors after 20 points also in mind, we expect a four-set contest in which Samsung Fire Bluefangs take one set. The longer the sets go, the greater the strain on Kwang Woo Yoo, while Blain can strengthen reception by replacing JIANG CHUAN with Ho Jin Shin. Blain has also said he plans to rotate the two players (MyDaily, October 25).
The market also leans toward Hyundai Capital Skywalkers, but last season's gap in the standings and the 3-0 cup win are not decisive evidence for today's match. Samsung Fire Bluefangs have a different coach, setter, libero and foreign players compared with that meeting, and WANG BIN was absent from the cup match. We side with the market on the outcome, based on the current serving threat and substitution options. Tae Jun Jeong's return date has not been announced (No Cut News, October 31), and the coach is managing Kwang Woo Yoo's workload (Star News, November 2). The outlook would change if Samsung Fire Bluefangs consistently handle the opposition's serve and Yoo can distribute the ball to both attackers throughout the match.
[Final picks · by market · Betman lines] Match winner: Away win. The away side has more players who can disrupt reception with their serve and more options to adjust between sets. The home side's attack from both wings has yet to be tested against a strong-serving opponent. Over/Under 182.5: Over. Without Tae Jun Jeong, Hyundai Capital Skywalkers' middle will struggle to close down attacks from both wings early. Both teams also make errors after 20 points, so even in a four-set match, sets should run beyond 20. Set handicap +1.5: Away win. A straight-sets win looks unlikely. For the home side to take two sets, though, they will have to overcome Blain's between-set adjustments, and they have fewer options off the bench.
