[2026-27 UEFA Conference League] Lincoln Red Imps vs Hajduk Split preview and analysis Kick-off: November 5, 17:45 UTC
Hajduk Split have earned both of their wins in European competition by intercepting opponents’ short passes out from the back and scoring. Lincoln Red Imps are not a team that often attempts those passes.
1. Match overview and team form
Lincoln Red Imps have lost both of their league phase matches, though they scored in each from Nano free kicks. Against SK Brann, their opponents had been down to 10 men from the 23rd minute, yet Lincoln still struggled to keep the ball. Nano’s free kick put them ahead in the 59th minute, but they were later beaten. Against Twente, they conceded from two passes into the middle in the 19th and 24th minutes. They conceded twice in the second half of each match. They had six wins and one draw through seven rounds in the domestic league, but the difference is that they have spent much longer defending without the ball against European opposition.
Coach Juan Bezares said he was wary of Hajduk Split’s high press and attacking build-up, and that he wanted to make them defend deep (Germanijak, November 4). Lincoln Red Imps have had little time to keep possession and attack in Europe, though. To make use of Nano’s delivery, they need to win free kicks in the opposition half or sustain their attacks. The match will be played on artificial turf at Europa Point, which Lincoln are using while Victoria Stadium is under construction. The club announced the match is sold out (Tiportal, November 4).
Hajduk Split scored their winning goals against Ajax and FC Thun by pressing inaccurate passes out from the back and back passes. If Lincoln Red Imps play the ball long, those chances will be less frequent. Instead, Hajduk will need to attack the middle and flanks of a set defence through Dalisson de Almeida, Marin Šotiček and Abdul Sanyang Bamba. They made five changes to the starting lineup for their last match against HNK Gorica. Michele Šego rested, while Šotiček came on in the 64th minute (Nacional, October 31; Tiportal, November 4).
In midfield, Leander Dendoncker stayed home with muscle pain (Dalmatinski Portal, November 4), while Adrian Pajaziti will be out for two to three weeks (Svijet Kladenja, November 2). Khalil Fayad and Alberto del Moral are expected to start, so the bigger impact is likely to be fewer options off the bench later in the game. Dalisson has returned to training, and Marko Livaja could be available as a second-half attacking option.
2. Matchup analysis
The first contest will be for the ball after Hajduk’s press. If Lincoln Red Imps limit the short passes out from the back that Hajduk have turned into goals in Europe, there will be more long balls and second-ball battles. If Fayad and del Moral win those duels, Hajduk can attack again in the opposition half. If Mandi, Joe and Nano get the ball for Lincoln, they will have a better chance to counter or win a free kick. With fewer midfield substitutes available, Hajduk will need to keep competing for those balls after the break.
The other question is how Hajduk’s attacking midfielders connect their passes in front of Lincoln Red Imps’ low block. Twente scored twice with early passes through the middle against this defence. Dalisson and Šotiček can receive the ball between the lines for Šego to finish, giving Hajduk another route beyond winning the ball through pressing. If Lincoln’s wide attackers tuck inside, Hajduk’s full-backs can also push forward into the space. Local reports say wind could affect the accuracy of crosses and long passes (TV Jadran, November 3).
Nano’s set pieces are Lincoln Red Imps’ clearest route to goal. Hajduk’s Dario Marešić travelled with the squad, but his start is uncertain (Tiportal, November 4). If the centre-back pairing changes, their set-piece defending will need watching. If Hajduk score first and Lincoln have to push forward, space will open up for the press and quick attacks.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect Hajduk Split to keep the ball for long spells and attack the low block with runs from midfield. Lincoln Red Imps can score from Nano’s delivery, but they created few other chances in their two European matches. If Hajduk score first, Lincoln will have to push forward in the second half, and we expect Hajduk to extend their lead and win by more than one goal. They can bring on rested Šego and Šotiček, with Livaja also available from the bench.
The market heavily favours a Hajduk Split win, and we agree with that direction. We expect a wider margin because of Lincoln’s second-half concessions and lack of attacking routes, which count for more here than the fact that Hajduk’s two recent European wins were both by one goal. A long 0-0 would change our view. If Hajduk cannot score through patient possession, one Nano free kick could decide a close match.
[Final picks · By market · Based on Betman offerings] 1X2: Away win. Lincoln Red Imps have shown no route to goal beyond set pieces in their two European matches, while Hajduk Split can attack a low block with runs from midfield even if their pressing wins the ball less often. Handicap +1: Away win. After the first goal, Lincoln will have to push forward, and their second-half fatigue could combine with Hajduk’s rested key players to widen the margin. Handicap +2: Away win. Hajduk’s two European wins by one goal came against stronger opposition. Against Lincoln, the home side’s second-half fatigue and Livaja’s introduction from the bench could increase the margin. Handicap +3.5: Home win. Nano’s set pieces have produced goals in both of Lincoln’s European matches, leaving them a route to pull one back and keeping the margin below that mark. Over/under 2.5: Over. The same scenario that could widen the margin, an early goal forcing Lincoln forward as they tire in the second half, could also lift the total, with a Lincoln goal from a set piece adding to it.
