[26-27 UEL Europa League] NEC Nijmegen vs AC Omonia Preview Kick-off: 17:45 UTC, November 5
NEC Nijmegen create plenty of chances through pressing and wide attacks, but remain inconsistent in front of goal and at the back. AC Omonia have kept their form going in recent matches, though they will need a makeshift left side of defence for this away trip.
1. Match overview and team form
NEC Nijmegen are 13th after going eight league matches without a win, but that run alone does not tell the full story of their chance creation. Against SC Heerenveen, they had 21 shots but only two on target. Their 2-2 draw with Fortuna Sittard came with an expected-goals figure of 2.99, according to DataCenter. Away to GNK Dinamo Zagreb, they scored four times in a 4-2 win, repeatedly turning balls from wide areas into goals. Coach Dick Schreuder said he intends to stick with his approach for this match (Omroep Gelderland, November 4). We expect the high press and forward runs from plenty of players to continue.
That approach carries defensive risks. Against SC Heerenveen, one forward pass after their press was beaten exposed the space behind the defence and led to a goal. They have kept just one clean sheet in their last 20 competitive matches. Against FC Groningen, they came back from 0-2 at half-time to draw after making changes at the break and in the second half, though the visitors also dropped deeper. Dušan Tadić and Philippe Sandler return for this match. Schreuder expects both to be able to play at least 45 minutes, which does not guarantee they will feature for the full 90 (ForzaNEC, November 4). Tobias Storm, who set up the opener against GNK Dinamo Zagreb with a low cross, is out (Omroep Gelderland, November 4).
AC Omonia have won all eight of their last 20 competitive matches in which they led at half-time, and kept nine clean sheets over that span. Away to NK Celje, they led 1-0 at the break before adding two more goals. Against SL Benfica, Andronikos Kakoullis finished a cross from Jaden Montnor on the left, but Omonia later gave the ball away with a pass out from the back under Benfica's high press and conceded. Starting left-back Jure Balkovec is out of the travelling squad with a muscle injury, and there is no specialist replacement available (Politis, November 1 and 4). Duverne, who joined the away trip after recovering from injury, is expected to fill in on the left (AlphaNews, November 4). AC Omonia trained at the local stadium yesterday, but this new defensive combination will have to deal with NEC Nijmegen's wide attacks.
2. Matchup analysis
The first key matchup is AC Omonia's left defence against NEC Nijmegen's wide combinations. NEC repeatedly turned wide deliveries into finishes in the box against GNK Dinamo Zagreb. With Balkovec unavailable, Duverne is likely to start on the left, and how he handles NEC's forward runs will matter. Montnor, who drives forward on the left in attack, could leave more defensive work for his side when he pushes on. NEC are also without Storm, though, so they have lost one player who helped provide the same kind of service from wide areas. That is why the defensive gap does not automatically point to several goals.
The second matchup is NEC Nijmegen's press against AC Omonia's forward passes into the space behind it. If NEC win the ball high up the pitch, they could create the kind of situation Benfica caused for Omonia in the second half. But if Omonia play through the press and find Montnor or Kakoullis, the space behind NEC's defence could be exposed quickly, as it was against SC Heerenveen. If Omonia take the lead, they can draw on their recent record of protecting advantages. NEC can add attackers with substitutions, as they did against Groningen, but turning chances into goals is a separate challenge.
3. Verdict and conclusion
We expect the teams to draw. NEC Nijmegen could create more chances by attacking AC Omonia's left side, but Storm's absence and their recent low rate of shots on target make it hard to expect those chances to keep producing goals. AC Omonia also have a route forward through the press and into the space behind NEC's defence. Even if Omonia take the lead, they will have to face the home side's second-half attack without a specialist left-back replacement.
The market has favoured NEC Nijmegen on home advantage and Balkovec's absence. Our point of difference is the home side's finishing. Against SC Heerenveen, only two of their 21 shots were on target, and in the same match they conceded after a single forward pass. Targeting AC Omonia's defensive gap does not make both problems disappear. The returns of Tadić and Sandler give NEC a way to chase the game if Omonia go ahead, but the coach only expects them to be available for at least 45 minutes (ForzaNEC, November 4). We would change our view if NEC turn their early wide attacks into goals and keep repeating them after Omonia push their defensive line higher.
[Final picks · by market · Betman lines] Full-time result: Draw. The home side create plenty of chances but convert few, while conceding from the visitors' limited opportunities. Omonia are good at protecting a lead, but will have to face NEC's second-half changes without a specialist left-back replacement. Handicap -1: Away side. For the home team to win by two or more goals, both their finishing and defensive stability would need to improve. Storm, who provided service from wide areas, is out today. Handicap -2: Away side. A home win by three or more goals does not fit our draw prediction, and Omonia have a well-organised defence with plenty of clean sheets. Under 2.5: The under. This looks like a game where both teams find the net once. More goals would require NEC's shooting efficiency to improve and Omonia to keep committing players forward even after taking the lead.
