Serbia are the only side in this group the Netherlands have beaten, and the way they did it is worth a second look before the rematch at the Philips Stadion. In the first meeting the Dutch had 25 shots to 11 and still needed a goal in the 69th minute, because Serbia's block stopped ten of those shots and pushed ten more out to long range. What Serbia lack is any way to stay in a game once the block breaks: they managed one shot in total at Germany.
Start with the numbers from the first meeting in the DB. Netherlands 2.74 xG against 1.32 and 67% of the ball, but Serbia put 6 of their 11 shots on target and 10 of them came from inside the box. Luka Jović scored right after the restart, cancelling out a Meerdink penalty, and the winner was another Meerdink goal. So that game does not say "Serbia were outclassed". It says Serbia concede few chances, but the ones they do give are good ones.
The Dutch pattern across their last three games points the same way. Their expected goals by half were 1.30, 0.37 and 0.57 before the break, then 1.43, 0.79 and 2.61 after it. The Greece game is the clearest case: 19 shots, 71% possession, yet Greece scored twice in the first half from 8 shots in total, and Koeman's team needed goals in the 59th and 89th minutes to rescue the draw. A side that keeps arriving late is not a comfortable thing to be, but it is also a side that keeps giving the opponent an early window.
The squad list matters here as well. The database flags Brobbey, Gakpo, Malen, Kluivert, de Jong, Wieffer, Geertruida and van Hecke with injury marks, though these are squad markers and not confirmed absences. We do know that Gakpo went off injured after 17 minutes against Serbia and Brobbey after 35 against Germany, and that Meerdink came on for Brobbey in that game and then scored twice against Serbia. If the front line is rebuilt again, the question is whether the Dutch can create their early chances from midfield rather than waiting for the second-half substitutions to do it.
For Serbia, who have no points after three games, the realistic plan is the same as last time: stay compact, let the shots come from distance, and use the restart or an early set piece to score. Whether that works depends on whether the Dutch first half looks like the 1.30 xG of the first meeting or the 0.37 against Greece. I'd watch the opening half-hour for that, not the scoreline.
