This is a match between a team with a proven way of winning and a team that has barely shown itself yet. One side has seven official games of evidence that its defence creates easy points. The other has played one league game after a very long break, so its true level is still a question.
Anyang has played seven league games and won six. The pattern is steady: its pressure defence forces about 13 or 14 turnovers a game while giving the ball away only about eight times, it leads the league in steals, and opponents shoot roughly 49 to 50 percent on twos against it. In the six full box scores, Anyang made 54 percent of its own twos on 270 attempts and got to the line 84 times. Five of its seven margins were four points or more, one was exactly three, and the only loss came on a night it hit 3 of 25 from deep.
Seoul's evidence is one official game, a home loss to Sono after a 22-day gap. In that game it protected the ball extremely well, with only two turnovers, and shot 51 percent on twos, but Sono made 16 of 33 threes and that decided it. Those two turnovers came against a team that does not pressure the ball, so they are not a forecast against Anyang's steal game. The real contest is Warney and Hicks inside against Anyang's new import Mooney and a rim-protecting defence that leads the league in blocks.
The absence picture is quiet on both sides, and that is silence rather than confirmation. Anyang's injured import Thomas is already out of the picture, and four of the seven games came without him, so the sample reflects the current roster. Seoul's Oh Se-keun did not appear in the last box score and his status is unknown. Anyang is on a third game in about four days, but with two days of rest the legs matter less than the system.
I expect Anyang to start steadily, win the turnover battle in the middle quarters, and build a small cushion that holds through the fourth quarter, where its numbers have been strongest. Seoul can keep it close if its guards keep taking care of the ball and the paint pair scores at a high rate, but Anyang's average margin sits well above where this game is being priced. That's why I'm siding with Anyang to win by more than a basket, and I'm keeping the stake modest because Seoul's sample is so small.
