[26-27 UEFA Champions League] Liverpool vs Villarreal Preview and Analysis Kick-off: 19:00 UTC on October 20
Liverpool and Villarreal meet at Anfield at 19:00 UTC on October 20 for Matchday 3 of the UEFA Champions League league phase. Liverpool sit fifth after winning their first two games, while Villarreal beat Napoli to claim their first win in the competition. Andoni Iraola and Inigo Perez, who worked together at Rayo Vallecano, now face off as the managers of Liverpool and Villarreal respectively.
1. Match overview and team form
In the data centre’s standings dated October 19, Liverpool had six points from two wins, with eight goals scored and four conceded. Villarreal had three points from one win and one defeat, with five goals scored and four conceded. A win would give Liverpool three wins from three and keep them well placed in the race for a direct place in the round of 16. Villarreal could also use an away result to build on their current 14th place and push towards the top eight.
The teams have taken different paths since changing managers. Iraola’s Liverpool have recorded six wins, three draws and one defeat in 10 competitive games this season, scoring 20 goals and conceding 13. That is an improvement on the three wins, two draws and five defeats from their final 10 games last season, though two straight Champions League wins do not mean their performances have become consistent. Against Manchester City, they conceded twice in a row after Ryan Gravenberch was sent off. Against LASK, they led 4-0, then replaced both centre-backs at once and conceded three goals. Their recent comeback win away to Brentford also came after the hosts had a player sent off just before half-time.
Villarreal, under Perez, began the season with six winless games, but have since taken three wins, one draw and one defeat from their last five. After that barren spell, they beat Malaga and Levante 3-1 after deploying Alberto Moleiro just behind the striker. Against Napoli, they stuck to their plan even after conceding first. Georges Mikautadze pounced on a weak back pass to equalise, helping Villarreal to a 3-1 win. However, away to Real Madrid, they managed an expected goals figure of just 0.62 despite taking 15 shots. Their pressing can create chances, but getting far enough into the penalty area at Anfield is a separate challenge.
Key details Champions League record: Liverpool, 2 wins, 8 goals scored, 4 conceded / Villarreal, 1 win, 1 defeat, 5 goals scored, 4 conceded Last match: Liverpool won 2-1 away to Brentford / Villarreal drew 0-0 at home to Elche Key team news: Liverpool will be without Dominik Szoboszlai and Jérémy Frimpong / Villarreal will be without Nicolas Pépé, while Tajon Buchanan is a doubt
Liverpool’s absences change how they share the work. Szoboszlai has scored three goals this season, making runs into the box from the second line. If Gravenberch takes his place, Liverpool will have less of that goal threat, but will be better equipped to protect the space between midfield and defence that Moleiro could target. Attacking right-back Frimpong is also out. Ronald Araújo, usually a centre-back, is likely to fill in on the right, putting more responsibility on the winger in that channel when Liverpool attack.
Villarreal made nine changes to their starting XI for the Elche game. Only Santi Comesaña and Moleiro started both that match and the Napoli game, while Santiago Mouriño, Pape Gueye, Gerard Moreno and Mikautadze were among those rested. Their failure to score despite taking 20 shots and recording 2.15 expected goals against Elche points to a finishing problem. At the same time, many of the players expected to lead the attack today did not start that game. Liverpool have had back-to-back away games against LASK and Brentford, and Iraola has spoken about the players’ lack of recovery time.
The head-to-head record offers only a limited guide. Liverpool beat Villarreal 2-0 at Anfield and 3-2 away in the 2022 Champions League semi-finals. Both teams have changed managers since then, and only Alisson, Virgil van Dijk and Juan Foyth remain at their current clubs from the players who featured in both games. The key question today is where Villarreal choose to defend. In that Anfield game, they sat deep and kept Liverpool’s first goal at bay until the second half, but did not manage a shot on target.
2. Matchup analysis
If Villarreal press Liverpool’s defence, both teams could find chances. Under Perez, Villarreal scored in the second half against Levante by pressing the opponent’s first pass and the ball back to the defence. Mikautadze also intercepted a back pass against Napoli. If Moreno and Mikautadze start together in a 4-4-2 today, the two forwards can close down Liverpool’s centre-backs. Some Liverpool defenders are carrying a heavy workload from consecutive appearances, so delayed decisions on the ball could lead to turnovers in their own half.
That press would also leave space behind Villarreal’s defence. Liverpool can move upfield quickly with a long pass from Alexis Mac Allister rather than spending too long playing short passes from the back. Their winner against Brentford came when Mac Allister’s long ball was headed on by Bradley Barcola for Alexander Isak to finish. Villarreal lost the ball high up the pitch away to Real Madrid and were exposed to a quick attack. The more they press, the more room Liverpool could give Barcola and Isak to run into.
If Perez keeps the two lines compact and defends deeper, the game will look different. Liverpool failed to score against Fulham after they could not win the ball back with their forward press and had to build against a set defence. If Villarreal use Comesaña and Gueye in front of the back line to close the gaps, Florian Wirtz could find it hard to receive the ball between the lines and turn. If Wirtz can link play, Isak and Barcola can run in behind, but if those passing lanes are blocked, Liverpool will rely more on attacks down the flanks and set pieces.
Set pieces give Liverpool another route to goal regardless of how deep Villarreal defend. Araújo scored a header against LASK, and Liverpool had a shooting chance after a second-half corner against Brentford. Perez also singled out Liverpool’s corners as a threat in his pre-match press conference. Villarreal have conceded a penalty while defending a corner against Dortmund, when Mouriño was penalised. Even if Villarreal protect the middle with a compact shape, Liverpool can look to Van Dijk, Araújo and others to score in the box.
When Villarreal have the ball, Liverpool’s response on the right will matter. Moleiro moved between Levante’s midfield and defence to link attacks, recording one goal and two assists in that match. If he drifts inside from the left while left-back Carlos Romero advances, Araújo, the expected right-back, will have to track both players. If Liverpool’s right winger follows Romero and Gravenberch protects the middle, Araújo can focus on Moleiro. If the wide player does not track back or the midfield gap opens up, Moleiro could find room to receive the ball.
Villarreal’s choice on the right is also directly linked to Barcola. Buchanan’s starting place is uncertain, with Nathan Saliba and Ilias Akhomach among the candidates for the right midfield spot. Saliba would be able to focus more on containing Barcola alongside Mouriño. Akhomach could attack the space left by Milos Kerkez when he advances, but that would leave Mouriño to deal with Barcola more often. Mouriño has scored against both Dortmund and Napoli, but when he joins the attack he also has to respond to Barcola’s forward runs.
In the second half, playing time for the starters and substitutes will matter. Many of Villarreal’s expected starters rested against Elche, but several of their substitutes started that match. Some Liverpool regulars have had a heavy workload, while Rio Ngumoha, Luis Kumas and Trey Nyoni only came on as substitutes against Brentford. If Iraola changes his defence after taking the lead, as he did against LASK, Villarreal could get another chance to press. On the other hand, if Liverpool use long passes to beat the press and their substitutes keep the energy up front, Villarreal’s rested starters may not be enough to change the flow of the match.
3. Verdict and conclusion
Our predicted score is a 2-1 Liverpool home win. Liverpool are likely to take the lead from a set piece or by exploiting the space behind Villarreal’s press, add a second goal, then concede one in the second half. Liverpool have set pieces as a scoring route regardless of how Villarreal defend. Mac Allister can bypass the press with direct forward passes and create opportunities for Barcola and Isak. If Gravenberch protects the midfield, Moleiro will find it harder to receive the ball inside and link Villarreal’s attacks.
Our view on the winner is much the same as the market’s lean towards Liverpool. The difference is the margin. Liverpool’s eight goals in the competition and Villarreal’s away record of conceding goals could point to a comfortable win, but Liverpool are without Szoboszlai and Frimpong, reducing two sources of attacking threat. Iraola also has to manage minutes with Brighton coming up in four days, while Villarreal’s starters had a rest against Elche. Those factors make us think Liverpool could lead and still concede once.
The outlook changes if Liverpool do not cope with Villarreal’s two forwards pressing from the front and keep making mistakes in their own half. Villarreal could score first in that scenario. Liverpool would then have to face a Villarreal side sitting back to protect its lead, making our 2-1 home win forecast harder to sustain.
