[2026-27 UEFA Champions League] SSC Napoli vs FK Bodø/Glimt preview and analysis Kick-off: October 20, 19:00 UTC
SSC Napoli and FK Bodø/Glimt meet at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in the third round of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League league phase. SSC Napoli need their first points, while FK Bodø/Glimt aim to carry their win over Borussia Dortmund into an away fixture. Both teams have ways to score, but how they adjust after conceding first could matter more.
1. Match overview and team form
SSC Napoli have lost to Arsenal and Villarreal in their first two games, leaving them 32nd with 0 points. FK Bodø/Glimt sit 24th with 3 points after a 0-5 defeat away to Bayern Munich followed by a 1-0 home win over Borussia Dortmund. SSC Napoli have now gone five Champions League games without a win, a run stretching back to last season. Corriere dello Sport described this match and the game against Roma four days later as fixtures that could determine Massimiliano Allegri’s future. Allegri also said after the defeat to Venezia that Napoli had to get a result in the Champions League.
Summary Champions League league phase: SSC Napoli, 2 losses, 1 goal scored and 4 conceded; FK Bodø/Glimt, 1 win and 1 loss, 1 goal scored and 5 conceded All competitions this season: SSC Napoli, 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in 9 games; FK Bodø/Glimt, 15 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses in 19 games Recent form: SSC Napoli have lost 2 in a row; FK Bodø/Glimt have won 4 in a row
SSC Napoli’s downturn is about more than chance creation. Across three Serie A games and one Champions League game with expected goals data, they have recorded 8.83 xG but scored only 5 goals. Away to Venezia, they had 29 shots and 10 on target but lost 0-1. Kevin De Bruyne came on after the break and saw his penalty saved. Away to Villarreal, Amir Rrahmani opened the scoring and Rasmus Højlund hit the post, but a short back pass from Matteo Politano was intercepted for the equaliser, and Napoli conceded again three minutes later. Poor finishing, individual errors and their response after conceding have all shaped the results.
All three of SSC Napoli’s wins this season have been clean sheets. They have taken just 1 point from the 6 games in which they conceded, with 1 draw and 5 losses. At home, both of their 2 wins in 4 games have also come without conceding. Against Frosinone, Massimiliano Allegri added defensive cover after Napoli went 2 goals up in the first half, helping them see out a 3-0 win. They could not protect an early lead against Villarreal, though. They have shown they can sit deeper to protect a lead, but have yet to do so successfully against a European opponent this season.
FK Bodø/Glimt’s four-game winning run includes their victory over Borussia Dortmund, along with Eliteserien and Norwegian Cup matches. Against Dortmund, Sondre Auklend received a pass from Patrick Berg and sent a low ball in from the right. Defender Fredrik Sjøvold arrived in the box to score the winner, and Nikita Haikin made saves to preserve the 1-0 lead. Away to Bayern Munich, Bodø/Glimt went in 0-0 at half-time, but Haikin was forced off injured and they conceded five times after the break. Their home win against a strong side and the defensive gaps they showed away to another strong side are separate issues.
FK Bodø/Glimt have scored 26 and conceded 17 across their last 11 away games in the available sample. They have found the net on the road, but have also conceded more than once per game on average. Sport Mole reported that they have conceded in each of their last 17 away games in UEFA competition. They did beat Inter 2-1 away last season, turning an opponent’s mistake into a counterattack. Håkon Evjen, who scored the second goal in that match, is out injured this time. Ole Didrik Blomberg, who started the move for the first goal, is doubtful after an injury against HamKam. Bodø/Glimt cannot count on recreating that counterattacking threat with the same personnel.
SSC Napoli also have absences that affect specific roles. David Neres, Alisson Santos, Antonio Vergara and Costantino Favasuli are out, reducing the options to take on defenders out wide. In the 1-0 win over Bologna, the winning goal came when Costantino Favasuli came on at half-time and sent a low ball in from the right for Stanislav Lobotka to finish. Matteo Politano and Noah Lang are expected to provide the width this time, but Napoli have few substitutes who can add the same threat if the game gets stuck. Kevin De Bruyne and Rasmus Højlund did not start against Venezia and are expected to return to the starting XI. There is disagreement over whether Scott McTominay will start.
The teams have met only twice before, in the 1976-77 Cup Winners’ Cup, with SSC Napoli winning both games. The squads, coaches and competition format have all changed, so those results offer little guidance for this match. FK Bodø/Glimt also will not have the advantage of playing on their usual artificial turf. Both teams played league fixtures on October 17, but Fredrik Sjøvold, Sondre Auklend and Patrick Berg started both the Borussia Dortmund and HamKam games. If they start again today, it will be their third start in six days, a workload that could affect defensive recovery and substitution decisions later on.
2. Match-up analysis
The first thing to watch is FK Bodø/Glimt’s defensive position. Kjetil Knutsen’s side use a 4-3-3, looking to stretch the pitch and create chances with crosses. Jostein Gundersen said the team would defend higher and keep the ball away from their own penalty area, rather than dropping as deep as they did against Bayern Munich. If they press high, SSC Napoli’s centre-backs and Stanislav Lobotka will have to build play under pressure. Politano’s intercepted back pass against Villarreal showed the danger in that situation.
A high defensive line also carries risks for FK Bodø/Glimt. It can leave space behind for Rasmus Højlund and Noah Lang to attack. Napoli could reduce the danger of losing the ball near their own goal by playing long, as they did under Arsenal’s press, but that would make it harder to keep possession. If they beat the press with short passes, they can attack the space behind the defence straight away. Bodø/Glimt’s starting defensive line and Napoli’s choice of pass under pressure could shape the early chances.
On the right, FK Bodø/Glimt’s attack will test SSC Napoli’s left side. Fredrik Sjøvold finished a ball from the right in the box against Borussia Dortmund. Away to Atlético Madrid last season, he also moved into the middle of the box to meet a cross from the opposite flank and score. If Napoli use a back four and Noah Lang does not track back, left-back Mathías Olivera could have to deal with both the winger and Sjøvold’s runs. A back three could divide the defensive duties between the flank and the box, though the players ahead of them would still need to help out. If Ole Didrik Blomberg cannot play, Joel Mugisha Mvuka is expected to take the right-sided attacking role. Sjøvold can still make his runs, but it remains to be seen whether Mvuka can match the pressing Blomberg has provided.
At the other end, SSC Napoli’s crosses and set pieces could be important. FK Bodø/Glimt conceded headed goals from crosses against Atlético Madrid and Juventus last season. Napoli can deliver from wide through Matteo Politano and Giovanni Di Lorenzo, with Rasmus Højlund and Amir Rrahmani competing in the box. If Scott McTominay starts, he can also arrive from deep. Billy Gilmour scored from a rehearsed corner routine against Fiorentina. Napoli still have crosses and set pieces as routes to goal, even with few substitutes who can beat a defender out wide. But, as their shot count against Venezia showed, creating chances does not guarantee they will finish them.
The teams’ choices will change after the opening goal. If SSC Napoli score first, Massimiliano Allegri could add defensive cover around the 60-minute mark, as he has in previous games. If FK Bodø/Glimt push their full-backs forward in search of an equaliser, Napoli may find space behind them. Napoli have also failed to protect leads against Fiorentina and Villarreal, though. If Bodø/Glimt score first, Napoli will have to commit more players forward. With few substitutes to change the attack out wide, crosses and set pieces would take on a bigger role. Bodø/Glimt could also leave space behind their advanced defenders if they keep attacking from high positions after taking the lead.
If the first half ends level, the impact of the substitutes could decide the second half. SSC Napoli rested some first-choice attackers against Venezia, but have few players on the bench who can change the style of their wide attack. FK Bodø/Glimt made six changes to their starting XI against HamKam, yet kept right-sided attack regulars Fredrik Sjøvold and Sondre Auklend, along with Patrick Berg in midfield. They had only eight players on the bench against Dortmund. Consecutive starts do not automatically mean their defensive work will drop off, but it will be worth watching whether they can keep up their forward runs and recovery runs between the 60th and 75th minutes.
3. Verdict and conclusion
Our score predictions are 2-2 or 1-1. If FK Bodø/Glimt start defending high as they have indicated, they can put SSC Napoli’s build-up under pressure while also leaving space behind for Rasmus Højlund and Noah Lang. Fredrik Sjøvold’s runs into the box and Napoli’s crosses and set pieces could each trouble the opposing defence. Even if one side takes the lead, we think a 2-2 draw is the likelier outcome. If Bodø/Glimt instead pack the area in front of their box from the start, there should be fewer chances at both ends and the game could be closer to 1-1.
The market favours a SSC Napoli win, pointing to their home advantage, the expected return of first-choice attackers and FK Bodø/Glimt’s record of conceding away in European competition. We agree Napoli have ways to score, but we are less convinced they can turn that into a win. They have not won any game in which they conceded this season, and cannot change a stalled attack with a like-for-like substitute to beat a defender out wide. Bodø/Glimt can also score away, but Håkon Evjen’s absence and Ole Didrik Blomberg’s doubtful status leave them with fewer options for counterattacking to protect a lead. Given the tactics and available players, we see a draw as more likely whichever side scores first. The key condition that could change our view is whether Bodø/Glimt score. If Napoli play over the press, stop the runs down the flanks and score first before adding defensive cover, they could still hold on for the win.
