Two MLS games where the results tell a louder story than the chances do. Inter Miami's recent scorelines lean on Messi and Suarez finishing, while their chance balance under Kily Gonzalez is roughly even and they keep leaking late. Austin's long unbeaten run sits on thin attacking numbers and a lot of shots conceded. In both games the side the table flatters is the one whose underlying play is weaker than it looks.
Miami v DC United first. Under Gonzalez, Miami create about 1.6 expected goals a game and concede close to 1.9. The only time they won by a distance was against Montreal, the league's worst defence. Their dropped points come from the same place: goals conceded at 82, 90+1, 87 and 90+8 minutes in recent league games, as the midfield in front of the back line tires.
That midfield is thinner for this match. Morales is suspended after his red card at Columbus, and Bright went off injured in the same game. Messi, Suarez and De Paul are all there, so Miami will still create, but the screen that protects them is the weak part. DC are built to hit exactly that. They play without the ball, break through Kurokawa, Nono and the wide players into the box, and they produced more than 2.4 expected goals in three of their last five, including at Vancouver without Munteanu.
I expect Miami to have the ball and probably the first goal, and then to manage the game rather than chase a second, which is the pattern that has kept their games close. DC need points at the playoff line, so they will keep running at the space. That's why I'm siding with DC United to keep this within reach.
Austin v Nashville next. Austin's eight-game unbeaten run is mostly draws, and across their last nine they averaged about 1.1 expected goals for and 1.7 against, with roughly 15 shots conceded a game. The one strong visitor in that stretch, San Diego, out-created them. Nashville's away results are only middling, but their away chance numbers hold up better than the results.
The key matchup is Nashville's right side, where Espinoza and Najar are the team's two leading creators, against an Austin left that has lost both wing-back options: Rosales is suspended and Kolmanic is injured. Nashville are close to full strength, with Schwake back in goal and Yazbek back in midfield after international duty.
The first half should be cagey, with Austin in a five-man block. Once Nashville break through, Austin have to come out because a point does little for their playoff chase, and that opens space for Surridge and Mukhtar. A draw is a real outcome here, which is why I only want Austin not to win. That's why I'm siding with Nashville away from home.
