Frankfurt against Koln is a match split down the middle by half-time. Frankfurt are at their most dangerous early, and they have been at their weakest after the break in every league game so far. Koln are the mirror image: almost all of their goals have come in the second half. The striker news has moved opinion toward the home side, but the Koln team that takes the field is close to the one that won last weekend.
The pattern is not one game long. Frankfurt conceded after half-time against Union, Augsburg, Mainz, Freiburg and Leipzig, ten goals in total, and three of those games saw a lead slip away, including both home matches. Koln scored six of their eight league goals after the break, and they came back from a goal down against Hoffenheim.
The key matchup early is Frankfurt's direct front two, Burkardt and Ebnoutalib, against Simpson-Pusey and Lochoshvili. That is the same centre-back pair that started against Gladbach, so van den Berg and Hubers being missing changes nothing new. Later, it is El Mala, Maina and Moore running at Frankfurt's full-backs once legs tire. Moore beat his man five times out of seven against Gladbach, and Frankfurt's late goals against have often come from wide deliveries.
The absence list looks long for Koln, but most of it was already missing when they beat Gladbach. Ache and Dallinga did not play that day, Rondic was only a brief substitute, and El Mala led the line with seven shots and a goal. The real fresh loss is Skhiri in midfield. Krauss steps in, and he already played the whole second half of that win and kept it clean.
The likely flow is a Frankfurt push in the first twenty minutes, then a turn after the break as Koln's runners come into the game against a home side that has struggled to hold what it has. One-all, two-all or a narrow home win are the natural shapes here, and the open second half is where Koln live. That is why I'm siding with Koln not to lose this one.
