This match is about two sides that both go into it without a win in four league games, but for different reasons. Deportivo have been creating plenty and losing on game events, while Levante are two different teams depending on where they play. The question is whether Levante's thin road attack can find a goal against a home side missing its holding midfielders.
Deportivo are eighth, Levante seventeenth. At home Deportivo have played four times and every opponent has scored exactly once, even though those opponents' chances were modest. Their problem is finishing: a heavy shot count against Betis produced one goal, and the Sevilla game was lost after a red card.
Levante's away picture is the key. In their four league games on the road they scored a single goal, with chance quality between very low and modest each time: a 0-3 at Espanyol, two 0-0 draws and a 1-3 at Villarreal. At home they are open and noisy, with a 5-2, a 2-4 and a 3-3, but that has not travelled. Their back line also gives up good chances almost everywhere, so Deportivo should get shots.
The absences cut both ways. Deportivo are without Casado and the suspended Amatucci in the pivot, and Aubameyang and Eddahchouri up front. Three of those four were already out for the last game, when Deportivo still created over two expected goals at Real Sociedad and outshot them heavily before losing 2-3 after a 0-3 deficit and a late red card. Levante miss Sotelo and Etta Eyong, who has mostly been a short-minutes substitute, so their loss changes little. Levante also played on the 12th, travelled from Valencia and have a postponed game coming on Wednesday.
I expect Deportivo to hold the ball, use Cruz and Yeremay wide and keep Levante in a mid block. Levante's route is a counter through Brugue, Romero and Thiago against the thinner pivot, a set piece, or one of the late goals they have a habit of scoring. The most likely shapes are a narrow home win such as 1-0 or 2-1.
That is why I'm siding with Deportivo to win at home. It is a modest-weight view built on Levante's blank away attack and the volume of chances Deportivo keep creating, and the home side has the clearer way to score in this match.
