Everton v Chelsea has one detail that matters more than the "Chelsea have the better front three" line: Everton may have to patch their left side, and Chelsea's attack runs through exactly the zone where a patched defence is tested. Sports Mole's preview (updated on the morning of the match) has Vitalii Mykolenko still doubtful and Jarrad Branthwaite, himself facing a late fitness test, possibly deputising at left-back with Michael Keane coming in. A different preview I saw has Mykolenko starting, so the real question is which version of that back four turns up.
Chelsea come in with a 5-1 over Bournemouth, but Sports Mole notes they have now conceded in 22 consecutive Premier League matches, and that win was the first time under Xabi Alonso they've avoided shipping at least two. They also lost 3-0 at Brentford just before the break. So this is a side that scores freely and still gets opened up, which suits a home team that wants to turn it into a scrappy, set-piece-heavy game rather than an open one.
Everton's side of it: unbeaten in six league games (two wins, four draws), five goals conceded, but they let a 2-1 lead at Hull slip into 2-2. Moyes was frustrated by that, per Sports Mole. Thierno Barry has scored in three of his six league appearances, two of those at home, so Everton do have a direct outlet when the game stays tight. The history is lopsided too: Chelsea have failed to score in seven of their visits to the blue half of Merseyside and lost six, though a long run like that says more about past Chelsea sides than this one.
What I'd watch is the first twenty minutes down Everton's left. If Branthwaite or Mykolenko is being asked to follow Rogers or a wing-back, does Everton's midfield tuck in to help and leave the other side open for Palmer to drift into, or do they accept the one-on-one? Whichever way they choose shows how Moyes rates his own back line against a side that keeps scoring but keeps conceding.
Sources: Sports Mole preview (15 Oct, updated 17 Oct) and a second preview roundup of team news. Line-ups were not confirmed when I read them.
