Hannover's pressure and St. Pauli's routes out of it put the first forward pass at the centre of this match. The visitors have used direct connections as well as short combinations, giving them a way to reach the space behind an advancing team. Hannover still carry danger through wide supply and corners, so the next possession after an attack matters at both ends.
Under Sandro Wagner, Hannover troubled Magdeburg with their pressure but also suffered from a blocked clearance near their own goal, an unprotected rebound and space left while chasing. Those were separate problems. St. Pauli's recent Niang, Metcalfe and Ceesay combination offers a practical way to attack forward, while Smith's delivery to Ritzka demonstrated another route from a free kick.
Smith and Rasmussen face the first task of moving the ball beyond Hannover's pressure. Direct passes towards Niang and Ceesay give them an alternative to forcing a crowded central connection. At the other end, Hartel, Oudenne and Neubauer remain Hannover's main sources of supply, with Thordarson adding a corner threat.
Hannover's official update rules Bundu out and describes Gindorf as very unlikely to feature after illness. Neither appeared against Magdeburg, so these are continuing limitations rather than two fresh losses from that team. St. Pauli have Ando fully available again, while Mathisen's return provides another defensive option; those updates concern available choices rather than an announced starting unit.
I expect Hannover to seek territory early, with St. Pauli mixing shorter links and direct forward passes. The visitors' ability to reach runners behind that pressure, alongside Smith's dead-ball supply, is the matchup I give the greatest weight. That's why I'm siding with St. Pauli to come away with the win.
