Both of these ACB games turn on the paint more than on the three-point line. In Manresa, the league's leakiest interior defence meets a visitor that lives at the rim and rarely fouls. In Andorra, a home side that has been beaten on the glass and inside in every game so far meets the team that has scored most efficiently inside. In both games the shooting numbers look loud, but the structure is quieter and holds up better.
Manresa against Unicaja. Manresa have allowed over 109 points a game, with opponents making about 59% of their twos, and they foul more than anyone in the league, at around 28 a game. They have also lost the rebound count in five of their last six. Unicaja make about 65% of their twos and commit the fewest fouls in the league. That is the matchup: Unicaja's bigs and drivers against a defence that gives up the rim and then sends people to the line.
The absences don't change much. Unicaja's missing trio were already out when they beat Andorra with a clear edge on the boards, so this is the lineup we have already seen. On Manresa's side, Allen is doubtful, but this defence leaked points with him and without him, including well over a hundred at Bilbao while he sat. Manresa's way back is a hot shooting night and their usual strong home start, and Unicaja have been ordinary from deep. Over forty minutes, though, I expect the second and third quarters to tilt Unicaja's way once Manresa's fouls pile up.
Andorra against Breogan. Breogan have made about 61% of their twos, and Andorra have conceded about 66% inside. Andorra have also been outrebounded by around nine a game. Breogan's hot three-point shooting will cool off, and Andorra's cold shooting should come back up. Even with that swing, the gap inside and on the glass is the part I trust.
The squad news supports Breogan too. The league medical report has them at full strength, and Brown played normal minutes last time out. Andorra's guard absence is an old one, already part of their results. Andorra are finishing a run of three games in eight days after two road trips, while Breogan had a full week to train. Andorra's best answer is Pustovyi and Radosevic working inside and drawing fouls, so this is no walkover. I still expect Breogan's second unit and their steals to swing the middle quarters.
That's why I'm siding with Unicaja to win with some margin in Manresa, and with Breogan to hold their own or better in Andorra.
