Athletico's compact back three meets a Palmeiras side that builds attacks through both wide lanes. Gilberto can move the ball quickly into Viveros, while Piquerez, Andreas Pereira and Arias can keep the home defence busy with deliveries and second balls. The contest should turn on who controls the next possession after the first cross or clearance.
Gilberto's service and Leozinho's movement give Viveros a direct route into the space around Palmeiras's changed right and central cover. At the other end, Flaco López can receive the wide supply, so Athletico's three centre-backs need to collect those first contacts and the loose ball that follows. Viveros played in Athletico's last league match, and the side's chance creation across the season gives that central route substance beyond one recent score.
Palmeiras are without suspended Giay and Gustavo Gómez for this league match, while Vitor Roque has been receiving ankle treatment. Athletico's projected Gilberto, Leozinho and Viveros group played together in its last league outing. Palmeiras still have creators on both flanks, but the change in defensive cover gives Athletico a specific place to attack.
Athletico can start from its back three and release Viveros through Gilberto, then use the longer rest to keep that shape as the game opens. Palmeiras have drawn their last two league trips without scoring, despite their ability to gain territory, and another wide attack will ask Athletico to win the clearance before it can break forward. That's why I'm siding with Athletico-PR to win at home.
