Chicago have the home record and the table position, but the matchup is decided in central midfield, and Chicago come in without the players who normally hold that zone. Philadelphia under Ryan Richter are a direct, two-striker side whose chance numbers have been better than Chicago's for months. Their reputation for leaking goals away from home mostly dates from before the break. This match looks open, with both sides scoring, and the hour mark is when it should turn.
Philadelphia play a settled 4-4-2 that is happy without the ball. Iloski and Damiani lead the line, Cavan Sullivan and Vassilev play wide, and Westfield and Wagner overlap. Over their last nine games they have created far more than they allowed, with roughly twice as many shots as their opponents, and their last five away trips brought four wins and a draw. Chicago under Berhalter are solid but less dangerous. Their attack runs through Haile-Selassie, Zinckernagel and Lewandowski, and their defeats follow a pattern: they concede few chances, but those chances are big ones, as against New England and Miami.
The key matchup is Chicago's makeshift midfield against Philadelphia's transitions. D'Avilla is suspended after his red card at the weekend, and Mekvabishvili and Lod are still injured. Salétros played the full ninety four days ago despite a minutes restriction, so Chicago are short of ball-winners and of legs behind the ball. Every loose touch in Chicago's build-up feeds two strikers who want to run in behind. Philadelphia's right side, with Westfield overlapping and Sullivan drifting inside, also faces a stand-in left-back.
Philadelphia have a problem of their own. Jean Jacques is reported out, which weakens their screen against Haile-Selassie and Zinckernagel cutting inside, and it gives Chicago a real route back. Philadelphia have also shown they can concede late in bursts.
I expect Chicago to push early at home with a playoff spot on the line, and Philadelphia to break on them. After the hour, Chicago's thin midfield and the load from playing most of Saturday with ten men should start to show, and that is when Philadelphia's runners and substitutes arrive. That's why I'm siding with Philadelphia not to lose this match: their current chance profile meets exactly the zone Chicago can't cover, and a draw is a branch I respect rather than fight.
