Both of these ACB games follow the same pattern. A Euroleague side finishes a heavy week on the road, against a home team that has had the whole week to prepare for its first game in front of its own fans. Valencia go to Zaragoza and Barcelona go to Murcia, each with less than two days since a European away game. That gap in legs and preparation is what I'm backing in both games.
Valencia are on their fifth game in ten days, and they'll tip off at Zaragoza less than 43 hours after a comeback win in Lyon. The only similar turnaround they've had this season ended in a 100-105 home loss to Lleida, when they gave up 33 free throws and lost the rebounding battle. Zaragoza are at full strength apart from the long-term injured Bango. Their coach wants to control the rhythm, win the boards and avoid turnovers, which is exactly how you keep a tired favourite close.
The old head-to-head blowouts don't count for much here. Valencia have brought in nine new players, and Zaragoza have rebuilt too. When the two current squads met a month ago on a neutral floor, a fresh Valencia only pulled away late to win 88-81.
Barcelona come to Murcia two days after winning in Istanbul, their fifth game in 14 days. They were without three interior players in that game: Nebo, Makoundou and Evbuomwan. That pushes them into small, open line-ups, and Sito Alonso's Murcia want a physical, defence-first game. Murcia have conceded 83.3 points a game over their last ten.
Murcia also beat Barcelona in both regular-season games last season, 84-83 at home and 81-78 in Barcelona. The heavy playoff losses in June came against a Barcelona side that has since changed coach and signed 11 new players. With a week of tactical work behind them, this is a good chance for Murcia to make their home opener a tight, grinding game.
